Analyst trims U.S. beer volume projection

Modern Brewery Age, March 31, 2003

Credit Suisse First Boston beverage analyst Andrew Conway cut back his earnings view on Adolph Coors Co. and cut volume forecasts on Coors arid Anheuser-Busch. Conway said wholesalers report sluggish U.S. results, due in part to harsh East Coast weather.

For Coors, Conway cut his first-quarter earnings estimate by a penny per share to 33 cents per share due to sluggish volume. Analysts' per share estimates for the quarter range from 15 cents to 62 cents with a mean target of 35 cents, according to research firm Thomson First Call.

"Coors' wholesalers entered the quarter with 200,000 barrels of excess inventory in anticipation of the Super Bowl; however, difficult winter weather in the Northeast and overall sluggishness in the U.S. beer industry negatively impacted (first-quarter 2003) consumer takeaway," Conway said in a note.

Conway cut his first-quarter U.S. volume shipment forecast for Coors to a decline of 1 percent to 2 percent from a previous expectation of flat volume. For Anheuser-Busch, Conway trimmed his volume shipment forecast to flat, down from an earlier target of 0.7 percent growth.