Imports hit a rough patch: a variety, of factors, including bad weather, slow the import juggernaut

Modern Brewery Age, July 21, 2003

Weinberg was a vice president at Anheuser-Busch during the heyday of super premium Michelob, and watched with dismay in later years as the big domestic brewers abandoned the super premium high ground to imports and micros. In some of his recent statistical analysis he's noted yet another correlation between decline of domestic super premium and rise of successor brands. "Super premium was 10% of advertising," he says. "But imports rose to 10% as super premium dropped in the late 1980s."

Anheuser-Busch has been making half-hearted attempts to revive its super-premium franchise over the past 10 years, but to little avail. The company has rolled out another probably excellent (but, based on A-B history, doomed) contender with World Select.

No longer import vs. domestic

The unusual multi-national debut of World Select seems to confirm that the nature of the game has changed, and the lines between import and domestic specialty will become blurred, as domestics seek to get back in the game. Alan Shapiro, formerly of Merchant Du Vin, has started a new company, called Specialty Beer Services, in Seattle, WA. He imports European specialty beers and cider.

"Its not import versus domestic anymore," he says, "it's specialty versus non-specialty. The pool of "better beer" consumers is growing. daily. People aren't just drinking domestic or imports anymore, they drink Orval some times, Sierra Nevada at others. People used to think that the growth of the micros would kill off specialty imports, particularly in the Northwest. Just the opposite. It's been the second coming."

Parallels in the wine business

Shapiro sees continuing parallels in the development of the varietal wine business. "If evolution of the beer business mirrors the wine category, certain premium brands get people more interested in more stylistically interesting products," he says. "If the beer consumer dynamic continues as it has with wine, opportunities for well-made, well-packaged items will find increasing acceptance with a growing consumer pool."

For Shapiro, who served as the first national sales manager for Pete's Brewing Co. in '89-'90, specialty imports and micros are complimentary, and will grow the high-price category together. However, market access problems will also be shared. "Smaller brands will be challenged by distributor consolidation," Shapiro says. "The world has changed. Just having a great beer is not enough to cross the distributor threshold."

The rest of the year

As importers look towards the future, beyond the bad weather and towards better times, there is one niggling problem that could throw a wrench into the proceedings--the fluctuating dollar.

"Everyone is concerned," says Alan Shapiro. "We reaped the benefits for a long time, but it will clearly be an issue going forward. I think many importers are evaluating the impact of price increases."

It depends on sourcing, however. "We're a smaller player, and we buy our beer from Canada," says Geoff Molson, "so it has not affected us at all so far."