Growers get the word at 1991 Wine Grape Day

Wines & Vines, April, 1991 by Dan Bryant

Growers get the word at 1991 Wine Grape Day

Pull vines that can't pay their way or areas doomed to phylloxera, watch consumer trends when planting or grafting, put new vines on resistant rootstock, be a bit innovative, and, most of all, have a home for your grapes.

Not much new but nevertheless the composite prescription for the ailing California wine grape industry from a grape marketer, a vintner, and a wine broker sharing views on "What to Pull? What to Plant?" during the California Association of Winegrape Growers' recent Wine Grape Day in Sacramento.

Barry Bedwell, president of Allied Grape Growers, the Fresno-based marketing cooperative, warned of projections for up to 160,000 tons less demand this year in District 12, 13, and 14, or the region from southern San Joaquin County through Kern County.

Almost all that region's crush of some 1.7 million tons in 1990 went for generic wine or grape juice concentrate and reflected a chronic market decline of over 25% during the decade of the 1980s. The Federal excise tax on wine will exert even more downward pressure on sales volume.

"For every 10% increase in price, economists expect a 7.5% decrease in volume or sales," he said.

Concentrate, an expanding sweetener utilization consuming up to 450,000 tons of the region's crush, faces smothering competition from imports, in effect canceling any potential for price improvement.

Short supplies of water, particularly in the San Joaquin Valley's southern end, and the yet-unknown consequences of the December 1990 frost on the coming crop, however, point to a reduced crop.

"For 1991, bets are off on what the market demand might be until we see how this particular crop develops," Bedwell said.

Conceding that Colombard and Chenin blanc are obvious candidates for removal simply because of oversupply, he advised growers to not act too quickly on the basis of variety alone.

"It should be an individual business decision based upon what the vineyard can return on a gross per acre. I see growers concentrating too much on price per ton. If you can make 13 to 15 tons to the acre to break even or make a small profit or a small loss, without a viable alternative, it probably should not be pulled."

By the same token, if a vineyard of a better-selling variety such as Rubired is producing poorly, it should be evaluated for removal, he added.

"Compare marginal vineyards with short-term grape prices. Sometimes you can be surprised on a decision whether to pull that particular vineyard."

Among other valley reds are Grenache, Barbera, Carignane and Ruby Cabernet, which he said enjoyed some stability or slight growth on the coattails of blush wines, but he urged growers not to assume they have a parallel to the white Zinfandel boom of a few years ago.

Turning to an analysis of what should be pulled on the Central and North Coasts, Bruce Rector, managing partner of Glen Ellen Vineyards & Winery, said he'd leave in place any vineyards "except those which are paid off, phylloxerated, and grossing less than $1,000 an acre."

He does recommend, however, considering grafting new tops on Colombard, Sauvignon vert, Flora, Silvaner, Emerald Riesling, Ugni blanc, and Grey Riesling vines that are younger than 15 years old, although he expects there are few in that age category.

"I assume it would not be wise to graft if there were phylloxera upwind of you and you have a history of transporting equipment into your vineyard. Approach grafting with retrofitting your vineyard to rootstock."

Borderline varieties for coastal vineyards, Rector said, are Chenin blanc, Zinfandel and Johannisberg Riesling.

Mill Valley bulk wine broker Joseph Ciatti predicted stabilized, if not declining, low-end prices for SJV grapes used for dry wines, concentrate, coolers, and brandy.

"It's a tough deal there. Real scary. There is a bright spot in the Lodi district with Chardonnay, Sauvignon blanc and Zinfandel. The wineries are interested in those, but the remaining Tokays, about 10,000 acres, are in the same place as valley grapes and are focal points for pulling."

As for what to plant, Bedwell said central and southern SJV growers with marginal vineyards are weighing replanting with tree fruit, almonds, or, if they have water, even cotton or tomatoes.

"We preach to our members to plant with a contract. The days of speculation, hopefully, are limited and not like the 1970s when people said we couldn't supply enough. Obviously we could.

"Look for contract possibilities. There are niche markets and particular wineries looking for particular varieties, maybe not on a large scale, but maybe suitable for your operation and knowledge."

Many growers, he added, are eyeing once again the old stand-by, Thompson Seedless, because of its dual utilization for raisins or crushing. "The raisin industry has done a very good job on marketing, although production has kept up with and exceeded it. Remember, the Thompson crush has gone from over one million tons not too long ago to 225,000 tons in 1990."

In the northern SJV, Bedwell said, opportunities exist for contracts for premium varietals in the Lodi and Clarksburg areas.