Future focus: a glimpse of what may be - predictions on international developments in personnel management

HR Magazine, March, 1998

A number of prominent futurists recently provided thought-provoking forecasts to the World Future Society, an organization devoted to the study of alternative futures. Many of these forecasts, if realized, will have profound effects on the workplace of the future. Some examples of the predictions made include:

* HR professionals will be able to tap talent pools overseas--without immigration entanglements - as "electronic immigrants" begin to play an important role in international trade. These cross-border telecommuters will compete against U.S. workers in a variety of occupations.

* Information warfare-attacks on complex information-management systems and infrastructures - aimed at both government and corporate facilities will pose a growing threat to world security. Unlike traditional weapons, information warfare is inexpensive and can be employed by smaller, lesser known groups.

* Up to 90 percent of the world's languages may disappear in the next century as the use of information technology erodes cultural and language distinctions. English is expected to become the dominant language.

* Exercise may become commonly prescribed by doctors and paid for by insurance companies. As the link between exercise, good health and lower health care costs becomes more evident, health maintenance organizations will begin to reimburse health dub fees.

* Infoglut will become a problem. Receiving too much information will result in an inability to identify or appreciate useful information. Boredom, stress, loss of sleep, and diminished productivity at work and in the classroom will emerge as symptoms of information overload.

* Jobs will become increasingly gender neutral. Because health care and other services are among the fastest growing occupations, men will no longer be able to afford shunning jobs traditionally perceived as "women's work," such as nursing and child care.

* In the future, wars may be fought between civilizations, rather than countries. Cultural conflicts will figure prominently, and tensions between groups who think differently (e.g., Western vs. Muslim civilizations) will challenge world peace.

* Race relations in the United States will improve. Because young people are growing up in a society more culturally and racially diverse than that of their parents, their early and constant exposure to those who are "different" will lead to greater understanding and harmony among racial groups.

* Although a one-government world is unlikely to emerge, the age of the nationstate may be over. Nongovernmental groups such as corporations and associations may begin to exert more authority.

Over the next several years, SHRM's Issues Management Program -which is dedicated to identifying and publicizing emerging issues that could affect the human resource profession - will explore these and other issues raised by the futurists and analyze the potential impact of these issues on the HR profession. Early identification of emerging trends will allow human resource professionals and their organizations to prepare appropriate responses and, in some cases, may even enable those with interests affected by a trend to influence its development.

Maureen Minehan is issues manager for the Society for Human Resource Management. Her e-mail address is maureen@shrm.org.