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Real Estate Weekly, Dec 12, 2001 by Faith Hope Consolo

As this is being written, Christmas is about three weeks away; when this is read, there will be roughly 10 days to go. What sort of Christmas do I think it will be? I'll project into the future now and we will find out by the end of the month, just how good a prognosticater I am.

First of all, for most of us it's going to be great, simply because we're still here and have our loved ones and friends with us - that should be enough. For those who suffered losses in the Sept. 11 disaster or any time this year, holidays are difficult...

However, for a time, let's concentrate on business -- be material, commercial, mercenary, and all those other words used this time of year for those who reckon it all in dollars and cents: It's going to be a reasonably good Christmas.

I'm tired of reading the gloom and doomers who seem to enjoy predicting the bad, the worse, and the awful. You know, if you say a thing long and loud enough, it usually comes true. Why do they want misfortune for themselves as well as everybody else? Just to say I told you so?

So far, signs are positive. As has already been reported, October sales were a record high, led by motor vehicle sales. According to Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, "Pessimists will argue this was a one-time fluke, but that misses the point that it demonstrates the power of economic incentives."

Even without vehicle sales, October retail sales rose one per cent, the biggest since January. Sales on the Friday after Thanksgiving were far above expectation. Yes, we are in a recession, have been since March, we've been told. If this is so, most recessions last about 11 months; and we are in the tenth month. The upswing will begin any day. On the stock exchange there is a bull market just waiting to get started. The war effort in Afghanistan has been more successful than was anticipated. The future looks good.

According to the ICSC 2001 holiday watch survey, the factors that would probably influence consumer spending were: Extra money available as a result of lower interest rates, tax relief, and mortgage refinancing. This will probably be a stay-at-home season and money used for travel will be spent on gifts for the home. Patriotism may be an additional incentive for spending as well as a "pent-up" demand for some items such as apparel. The highest sales growth were seen to be entertainment products: Toys, books, hobby material, video game hardware and software, CDs, DVDs, and videos.

We are a nation of incorrigible consumers who will probably give in to the "pent-up" demand to shop and to buy. There is also the desire to escape into the world of glitter, glow, and wonder of the holidays where the right gift may just be enough to make someone smile. It is a way to celebrate that I'm all right, you're all right, and perhaps everything else will turn out all right too.

As for retail leasing, it's back to basics: Another drug (store) war is looming once again. CVS competing for sales with Duane Reade, Duane Reade with Walgreen's, etc. Ground level space of buildings filling up with drug stores and coffee - Starbucks, Xando/Cosi, Pret a Manger...

For the first time in eight years, banks are coming to New York - Commerce Bank, Washington Mutual, and the ever-expansion of Fleet Bank.

Well, there you are. I've pled my case for the Holiday Season. Now all we have to do is wait and see how it all turns out. In the meantime, I hope that you and yours will enjoy a great holiday - no matter what.