Upturn continues as U.S. exports score another gain

AgExporter, March, 2002 by Ernest Carter

Despite a year of mounting challenges, the upturn continued. U.S. agricultural exports emerged with another gain, rising $2 billion or 4% to nearly $53 billion in fiscal 2001.

This was the second annual increase following three progressively weaker years during which exports retreated to $49 billion, down from a record-high $60 billion in 1996. Trade forecasts suggest that 2002 will add a third year of growth to the current rebound.

U.S. agricultural exports first surged past $50 billion in 1995, during a short-lived spike in prices and reduced competition in bulk commodity trade. Despite the weaker outlook for global economic growth since the mid-1990s, U.S. exports again topped $50 billion in 2000 and 2001. Prior to 1995, exports had never been higher than $44 billion.

Last year's performance was achieved with new records in exports to both of our NAFTA partners, along with strong sales to China, Indonesia and Russia. Exports of cattle hides and soybeans reached record highs, as did the broad category of consumer foods. Trade gains were held in check by weak Japanese demand, a slowing world economy and the strength of the dollar.

In the forestry and fishery areas, fiscal 2001 results were mixed. U.S. exports of solid wood products dropped 13% to $5.4 billion, while seafood exports increased 9% to $3.0 billion. Altogether U.S. agricultural, forestry and fishery exports totaled $61.2 billion in 2001, up 2% from 2000.

Imports remained largely unchanged, as $39.0 billion in foods, beverages and other agricultural products entered the country. With higher exports and basically steady imports, the U.S. agricultural trade surplus for fiscal 2001 climbed to $13.8 billion, a nearly $2-billion gain from 2000.

[Graph omitted]

RELATED ARTICLE: Bulk Agricultural Exports Remain Flat

U.S. bulk commodity exports were stymied by large global supplies and a strong dollar. Bulk export volume dropped 3% from the previous year to 112 million metric tons, mainly reflecting reduced grain shipments. Export value remained largely unchanged, as it has since 1999. U.S. corn battled stiff competition from China and Argentina. Soybeans set another volume record at 26.6 million tons, with nearly $1 billion in sales to China, but abundant supplies put a lid on prices. Sharply lower exports to Egypt trimmed total U.S. wheat sales by 4% to $3.3 billion. Cotton was up 14%, reflecting a larger U.S. crop, less competition from China and record sales to Mexico and India. Rice exports were off 14% because of stagnant demand and increased competition from Vietnam and Thailand.

                     FY      FY
                   2000    2001   Change
Commodity           $ million    Percent

Coarse grains     5,283   5,230     -1
Soybeans          5,072   5,106      1
Wheat             3,398   3,256     -4
Cotton            1,829   2,094     14
Tobacco           1,227   1,181     -4
Rice                909     782    -14
Pulses              240     251      5
Peanuts             237     135    -43
Other               378     424     12

Total            18,573  18,458     -1

Note: Fiscal years are October-September (i.e., fiscal 2001 ran Oct. 1,
2000-Sept. 30, 2001.) All numbers are rounded from original data.

Exports of Intermediate Agricultural Products Set Growth Pace

U.S. exports of semi-processed and other intermediate products increased 9% to $11.7 billion in fiscal 2001, outpacing the growth for consumer foods. Hides and skins were the big winner, with exports up 36% to a record $1.9 billion. Hide sales to No. 1 market South Korea increased by a third to $613 million, and exports to China more than doubled to $378. U.S. cattle, hogs and other live animals also collared a new export record at $827 million, with strong gains to Canada, Mexico, Europe, Japan and the United Arab Emirates. Planting seeds, vegetable oils, animal fats and wheat flour were down from the previous year. For intermediate products as a group, the U.S. export record stands at $12.3 billion, set in 1997.

                        FY          FY
                      2000        2001   Change
Commodity                $ million      Percent

Hides & skins        1,413   (*) 1,923     36
Feeds & fodder       1,704       1,753      3
Soybean meal         1,226       1,378     12
Live animals           709     (*) 827     17
Sugar, sweeteners
 & beverage bases      689         749      9
Planting seeds         777         731     -6
Veg. oils (excl.
 soy oil)              821         701    -15
Animal fats            409         310    -24
Soybean oil            278         240    -14
Wheat flour            130         104    -20
Other                2,555   (*) 3,007     18

Total               10,711      11,724      9

(*)Denotes record-high export value.

Consumer Products Ring Up Another Record

U.S. exports of consumer products maintained their record-breaking ways last year, climbing 5% to $22.6 billion. Mexico, Russia and Canada accounted for most of the growth. Among product groups, new sales highs were set for fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, snack foods, dairy products, pet foods and breakfast cereals. Although shy of the 1997 record, U.S. poultry exports increased 14% from the previous year to $2.2 billion as sales to Russia more than doubled to $586 million. Record red meat exports to Mexico were more than offset by declines to Japan, South Korea, Russia and other markets. Fruits, vegetables and other horticultural products put in a strong showing, with robust sales to Canada and Mexico. For the third year in a row, consumer products made up the largest category of U.S. agricultural exports, accounting for 43% of total export value in fiscal 2001, up from 24% in 1990.