Field crops overview - 1991/92 world field crop production, consumption, prices, trade, forecasts; report on preliminary acreage reduction program and 1991 U.S. export credit guarantees for the Soviet Union - U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service report

Agricultural Outlook, Nov, 1991 by Joy Harwood, Carolyn Whitton

This summer's adverse weather is likely to result in tighter U.S. ending stocks of feed grains in 1991/92. With forecast feed grain supplies at their lowest since 1983/84, and projected feed gain use at 229 million metric tons, ending inventories are expected to fall to the lowest level since 1976/77.

Despite adverse weather, soybean production is forecast slightly above 1990/91. Larger soybean supplies and 6-percent-higher use leave ending stocks forecast at 320 million bushels-just below the carryin level of 329 million bushels.

U.S. cotton output in 1991/92 will reach the highest level in 54 years. Even so, cool, wet weather in Texas has slightly lowered October's estimate of cotton output below last month's forecast.

On the international side , the Soviet Import situations continues to dominate the outlook for U.S. exports. In late September, USDA announced liberalized U.S. export credit guarantees for fiscal 1991. By late October, all of fiscal 1991 credits, and nearly all of previously allocated fiscal 1992 credits, had been used. (For the latest U.S. crop conditions and outlook, see tables 17-19. The world outlook estimates are in table 23.)

Early Frost Damage to

Corn Is Slight

Forecast 1991/92 U.S. corn production is almost 7.5 billion bushels, 5.7 percent below 1990's crop and 2.5 percent above September's forecast. October's upward revisions to yield forecasts for the three top-producing states - Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska - accounted for over 80 percent of the increase in production. Overall, the national average corn yields is forecast at 108.8 bushels per acre, and season average corn prices are expected to range from $2.25 to 2.65 a bushel.

Judging from October 1 yield forecasts, early harvest-season freezing temperatures caused little damage in northern, corn-growing states. Temperatures dipped into the low-to mid-20's on September 19 in the Dakotas and Nebraska, and into the upper 20's on September 20 in southwestern Minnesota and western Iowa. Among these states, only North and South Dakota experienced lower October corn yield forecast than those in September. These states are expected to account for about 4 percent of the corn harvest in 1991/92.

Corn harvesting has been ahead of schedule in several Corn belt states. As of October 13, about 66 percent of the crop had been harvested, compared with a 5-year average of 44 percent for that date. In Illinois, 88 percent had been harvested, and in Indiana, 80 percent. Some areas registered their earliest harvests on record.

When compared with September's forecasts, October's production forecast showed a small rise for sorghum and a small drop for barley, while oats declined nearly 7 percent. Sorghum production is estimated at 567 million bushels, barley at 464 million, and oats at 245 million. Overall, forecast feed grain production is down 5 percent from last year.

Corn and sorghum carryin stocks for 1991/92, based on the survey of September 1 grain stocks, contained few surprises. Reported September 1 corn stocks were 1.52 billion bushels, and 143 million for sorghum. Carryin corn stocks are 13 percent above 1990's level, reflecting the large 1990 crop, while sorghum carryin is down 35 percent.

Forecast feed grain supplies of 267 million metric tons are up 2 percent from last month, but are still at the lowest level since 1983/84. With projected total feed grain use of 229 million metric tons, feed grain ending inventories are expected to fall to 38 million metric tons, the lowest since 1976/77.

Given the forecast of lower world feed grain stocks during 1991/92, USDA Secretary Madigan announced on September 30 a preliminary 5-percent acreage reduction program (ARP) for corn, sorghum, and barley - the lowest ARP for these grains since 1981. The expectations of larger planted area will dampen the impact of the forecast reduction in 1991/92 stocks.

World Coarse Grain

Output Declines

World coarse grain production is expected to fall 4 percent below last year's high level. All coarse grain crops are forecast to drop, with the largest declines expected in barley, rye, and oats. Global use and trade in 1991/92 are both expected to decline, and ending stocks are projected down 8 percent. The ration of stocks to use is expected to decline from last year to a relatively low 15.2 percent, the third lowest since the mid-1970's.

Foreign corn production is forecast up 2 percent in 1991/92 to a record 283 million tons, led by substantial increase in the European Community (EC) and Eastern Europe. In both regions, improved growing conditions led to a recovery from the poor crops of the previous year. Much of the gain in Eastern Europe is expected in Yugoslavia, leading to potentially large exportable supplies. However, export prospects are highly uncertain, clouded by the impact of civil strife on marketing and transportation.

Among foreign corn exporters, China is expected to have a sharply lower harvest in 1991/92. Farmers reduced plantings after last season's record crop, and yields have also dropped below last year's exceptionally high levels. Productions is forecast to drop nearly 9 million tons, but this would still be China's second-largest crop ever, and supplies will continue to outstrip domestic use. Exports are likely to slip, but remain high. China's corn exports more than doubled in 1990/91, reaching a record 6.8 million tons, mainly to Asian markets.