Field crops overview - 1991/92 world field crop production, consumption, prices, trade, forecasts; report on preliminary acreage reduction program and 1991 U.S. export credit guarantees for the Soviet Union - U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service report

Agricultural Outlook, Nov, 1991 by Joy Harwood, Carolyn Whitton

In Brazil, soybean production is expected to rebound significantly from 1990/91's drought level, but the government has been slow release credits for farmers, and dry weather in one important region has discouraged plantings. In contrast, a recently increased allocation of credit to producers, complemented by a currency devaluation, may stimulate last-minute plantings. Brazil's production is projected up 62 percent, but will reach only 17.5 million tone compared with the 1988/89 record of 23.3 million tons.

Cotton Production

Highest in 54 years

U.S. cotton production in 1991 is expected to rise 14 percent above last year to 17.6 million bales, the largest in 54 years. This estimate is down slightly from September's estimate due largely to cool, wet weather, along with insect problems, in the Texas Plains.

Harvested acreage of U.S. cotton is expected to reach 13.4 million acres, the largest in a decade, primarily due to the relatively low 5-percent ARP. Yield per harvested acre is estimated at 630 pounds, near last season's 634 pounds.

Domestic mill use of cotton is projected to rise to 9 million bales, 5 percent above last season, reflecting continued strong consumer demand for cotton fiber. Exports, on the other hand, are expected to fall to 7.2 million bales, 8 percent below last year.

U.S. cotton stocks are expected to be replenished by this season's large production. Ending stocks in 1991/92 are forecast to reach 3.9 million bales, and the stocks-to-use ratio to climb to 24 percent, up from last season's 14 percent, but still less than the target specified in the 1990 farm act of 30 percent (4.9 million bales).

Global cotton production is expected to attain a record 90.7 million bales in 1991/92, 4 percent above last year, with much of the gain in the U.S. Foreign production also is up moderately, notably in China, India, and Pakistan, all major export competitors. The higher production forecast partly reflects the high prices in the season.

The Soviet cotton crops is expected to fall 8 percent to 11 million bales because of lower-than-expected yields. In the Southern Hemisphere, where planting is just beginning, only Brazil is expected to increase area and production.

Global consumption is expected to rise, increasing 3 percent to a record 88.2 millions bales. World exports are projected to increase a more modest 1.6 percent to 23.7 million.

Despite increased disappearance, world ending stocks are expected to recover from the very low levels of the two seasons. Ending stocks are projected to reach 30.2 million bales, 9 percent above 1990/91.

Wheat Prices

Begin To Climb

Estimated 1991/92 U.S. wheat production is 28 percent below 1990's near record, at slightly less than 2 billion bushels. Due to the drop in production, supply in 1991/92 will decline 13 percent to 2.9 billion bushels 13 percent higher beginning stocks.

Domestic use is projected to drop 9 percent to 1.3 billion bushels in 1991/92. Lower residual and feed use is expected to more than offset increase in all other demand categories. With supplies to decline more than total use, forecast wheat ending stocks, at 531 million bushels, are the lowest since 1974/75.