U.S. sugar - 1991/92 sugar production estimates; beet sugar and cane sugar production; consumption and prices - U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service Report

Situation and Outlook Report: Sugar and Sweetener, March, 1992

Production

Sugar Output Marginally Higher

Estimated fiscal 1991/92 U.S. sugar production from cane and beets is 7.20 million short tons, raw value, up 3.0 percent from 1991. Lower yields of sugar per ton of beets and cane limited the increase. The current estimate has been revised down by 125,000 tons or 1.7 percent since the December forecast, largely reflecting low sucrose content and post-harvest weather problems in some key beet-producing areas. Beet sugar output for fiscal 1991/92 is expected to total 3.75 million tons, raw value, 2.8 percent less than the previous year. Output of refined sugar per ton of sugarbeets is forecast to average 10 pounds less than a year earlier. With unusually warm weather in recent months, the condition of stored beets in open piles deteriorated, hampering sugar recovery. Cane sugar production for fiscal 1991/92 is forecast at 3.45 million tons, up about 360,000 from a year earlier. Louisiana's crop is forecast up almost 300,000 tons from the prior freeze-damaged crop, while Florida's output is forecast at 1.83 million tons, slightly above last season's record. Hawaii is forecast at 750,000 tons, up 3.6 percent. Hawaii has had several years of weather-related production problems.

Beet Sugar Prospects Dimmed by Post-Harvest Losses

U.S. sugarbeet production in 1991/92 is estimated at 27.85 million tons from 1.39 million acres. This is the highest acreage since 1975/76. While yields of 20.1 tons an acre are comparable with the previous season, expected beet sugar production at 3.73 million ton is lower, reflecting poorer recovery rates due mainly to lower sucrose content and unfavorable weather. Estimated 1991/92 fiscal year beet sugar production is somewhat higher than the crop year estimate due to improved outlook for the upcoming harvest in California's Imperial Valley and the prospect of a higher level of early beets to be harvested from the 1992/93 crop next September. Great Plains--USDA's January Crop Production Report estimated sugarbeet production in Montana, Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, and Texas at 6.00 million tons, down 3 percent from the November estimate, but comparable to the outturn a year earlier. However, alternating freezing and warm weather damaged beet piles during the fall post-harvest period and into January and February. According to one processor whose operations are concentrated in the Great Plains, storage conditions for beets in piles were the worst anyone could recall. For example, a hard, deep freeze in October, combined with warmer-than-normal weather thereafter, proved ruinous. Shrinkage was significant, resulting in the discarding of some beets that could not be processed. Extraction rates were down because of impurities created by decaying beets.(3) Beet sugar production for the region is expected to be down more than 10 percent from a year ago when sugarbeet harvested tonnage was comparable.

Crop                              Beet   Recovery
year        Sugarbeets           sugar      rate
                 Million short tons      Percent
1985/86          22.53            3.00     13.32
1986/87          25.16            3.42     13.58
1987/88          28.07            4.00     14.24
1988/89          24.81            3.51     14.14
1989/90          25.13            3.44     13.70
1990/91          27.51            3.84     13.94
1991/92 1/       27.85            3.73     13.40
Source: Crop Production; National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.

Great Lakes--Sugarbeet production in Michigan and Ohio is estimated at 2.8 million tons, down only marginally from the November estimate, but down 21 percent from 1990/91. This movement, despite a 5 percent increase in acreage, largely reflects sharply lower yields from a year ago. As a result of dry conditions, sugarbeet yields averaged 15.6 tons per acre compared with 20.6 tons a year earlier. A modest increase in sugar content, coupled with sugar produced from molasses desugaring technology, helped to offset lower beet tonnage. Sugar production was reported by trade analysts to be down only around 12 percent for the region. Red River Valley--In the fertile Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota, sugarbeet production is estimated at 9.74 million tons, down 1.8 percent from the November estimate, but up 19 percent from the 1990 outturn, largely reflecting higher yields. Production would have been better had it not been for some early freezes and unusually warm weather at the beginning of the calendar year that caused some deterioration of piled beets. While yields are up 3 to 4 tons per acre from the previous year, sugar content is off somewhat. As a result, sugar production for the region is expected to be up only about 4 percent from a year ago. The region accounts for about one-third of the national beet sugar supply. Northwest--Yields of Idaho and Oregon irrigated beets are reported by NASS at 21.1 and 29.0 tons, respectively, roughly comparable to 1990 levels. Sugarbeet production is estimated at a combined 5.43 million tons, compared with 5.32 million for the 1990 crop. Despite warm weather in December and January that caused beet piles to thaw and losses to occur, the Northwest is expected to produce a beet sugar record in 1991/92. The normal factory outturn will be enhanced by molasses desugaring facilities on-line at one of the region's four beet processing plants. California--The State's sugarbeet outturn, according to the January Crop Production report, will total 3.72 million tons in 1991/92, up 3.3 percent from the November report, but 14 percent less than the previous crop. This results from an 8 percent acreage reduction to 155,000 acres harvested, the lowest in 30 years, and a 1.8 tons-per-acre lower yield. The reduced acreage and production reflects 5 years of drought, competition from other crops, diseases such as virus yellows and rhizomania, and the suspension of the use of the soil fumigant Telone II by the State.(4)