Lemon crop down 5 percent, but 9 percent more limes - California lemon crop down while Arizona production increases 12% from 1990/91; lemon prices drop while lime prices stable - U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, Economic Research Service report

Situation and Outlook Report: Fruit and Tree Nuts, March, 1992

The 1991/92 U.S. lemon crop is expected to be down 5 percent from last season. California will likely see a decline of 9 percent as a result of the December 1990 freeze that also brought 1990/91 production down 6 percent from the prior year. Arizona's 1991/92 lemon crop is expected to be up 12 percent from the 1990/91 crop.

The 1990/91 season (August through July) was not one of the best for California and Arizona lemon producers. Unusually low temperatures during February 1990 were followed by extremely high June temperatures, and then by freezing temperatures in late December 1990. The December freeze did varying amounts of tree damage in all three lemon-producing areas, damaging the remaining 1990/91 lemon crop as well as the developing 1991/92 crop. Prorates (restrictions of weekly shipment volume under the California Lemon Marketing Order) were suspended in mid-January 1991 and have not been reinstated.

According to lemon industry reports, utilization has been about the same as last season, with 44 percent used for fresh domestic shipments, 18 percent for fresh exports, and 38 percent for processing and other uses. The harvest was behind last season, with only 48 percent of the 1991/92 California-Arizona crop harvested by February 8, compared to 60 percent the year earlier.

Fresh domestic shipments through February 8, 1992, were 94 percent of the year-earlier shipments, but exports were only 87 percent of the previous year's. Processed and other uses were only 63 percent of last season's levels. A higher proportion of last year's California lemons were processed in January 1991 because, after the freeze, some fruit that was not suitable for fresh marketing was salvaged for processing.

Lemon Prices Down Sharply in 1992

Grower prices (on-tree-equivalent returns) for fresh lemons rose last year, and the marketing-year-average price was $20.16 a box in 1990/91, up 11 percent from 1989/90. The freeze not only reduced the size of the crop, but caued more fruit to be diverted to processing. The volume of lemons picked was at a 5-year low between January and April 1991, and again in June and July 1991. The California fresh lemon price was the highest in June and Arizona's price peaked in September. The U.S. grower price for fresh lemons, has been dropping, and in February 1992 was about half as much as in February 1991.

F.o.b. prices for California-Arizona lemons averaged $13.10 per 38-pound carton (size 140) in December 1991, 15 percent less than in December 1990. After averaging nearly $21 per carton in January 1991 following the freeze, f.o.b. prices were down 45 percent, averaging $11.56 per carton in January 1992. In February, prices were down 40 percent from a year before. Lemon prices will rise seasonally through July, but will still be below year-earlier levels.

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Lemon Exports Drop and Imports

Increase

In 1990/91 (August through July), U.S. fresh lemon exports were down 18 percent from the prior season. In 1989/90 and 1990/91, exports accounted for about 20 percent of lemon production. Japan received about 75 percent of U.S. lemon exports in both years.

U.S. imports of fresh lemons increased 4 percent in 1990/91, from 11,600 short tons in 1989/90. The Bahamas provided 73 percent and Chile 17 percent of U.S. lemon imports in 1990/91.

Larger Lime Crop Forecast

Commercial lime production in Florida is expected to be 70,000 short tons, up 9 percent from 1990/91 (April through December). Since 1980/81, Florida lime production has fluctuated between 53,000 tons and the high of 76,000 tons in 1985/86.

U.S. lime imports nearly equalled production in 1990/91, a 35-percent increase from 1989/90. Mexico supplied 95 percent of U.S. lime imports both seasons. Between April and December 1991, imports from Mexico were up 35 percent from the same period the year before. The United States has been a major market for Mexico's Persian limes. When U.S. restrictions on Key lime imports are lifted, Mexican lime exports could increase, if there is adequate consumer demand.

During 1991, grower prices (on-tree-equivalent returns) for fresh limes were lower than in the corresponding months of 1990, except for March and July. January and February 1992 prices were about $11 per box less than in the same period last season. Weekly f.o.b. prices for Persian limes shipped from Florida averaged $5.50 per carton from December 1991 until mid-February 1992, 20-30 percent less than the year before. F.o.b. prices of Mexican limes shipped through southern Texas were down 10-20 percent in the same period.

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