School quality and Massachusetts enrollment shifts in the context of tax limitations

New England Economic Review, July-August, 1998 by Katharine L. Bradbury, Karl E. Case, Christopher J. Mayer

Table 4

Homeownership by Age of Head of Household

                                            U.S. Homeownership
Age of                                        Rate (Percent)
Head                                      1980             1990

All                                       65.6             64.1
[less than]25                             21.3             15.3
25-29                                     43.3             35.9
30-34                                     61.1             51,5
35-39                                     70.8             63.1
40-44                                     74,2             70,4
45-54                                     77.7             76.1
55-64                                     79.3             80.4
65-74                                     75.2             78.7
[greater than]74                          67.8             71.0

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University,
"The State of the Nation's Housing," 1991.
Table 5

Presence of Children by Age of Head of Household

                                      U.S. Households with Children
Age of                                 as Percent of all Households
Head                                      1980             1990

All                                       39.1             33.9
[less than]25                             33.8             31,1
25-34                                     60.0             54.6
35-44                                     74.8             64.1
45-64                                     28.9             32,6
[greater than]64                           2.8              3.1

Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard University, "The
State of the Nation's Housing," 1991 and 1996.

Demographic Bulge, Household Incomes, and the Housing Market

Aggregate enrollments were declining in the 1980s and rising during the 1990s, a sea change that one would expect to be associated with a shift in the strength of overall demand for and interest in schools and school quality in different locations. "Baby boomers," born during the period of high birth rates between 1946 and 1964, produced a bulge in the population distribution that has had a substantial effect on many areas of the economy.(7) The size and shape of the baby-boom bulge was similar in Massachusetts and the nation, although the post-boom cohort - the "baby bust" - was somewhat smaller in Massachusetts; that is, the post-boom drop-off was somewhat steeper in Massachusetts.

In 1980, the boomers were between the ages of 16 and 34. The bulk of them were in their twenties and, as shown in Table 4, home ownership rates have always been low for this age group. In 1980, only 21 percent of U.S. households with the head under age 25 and 43 percent of households headed by individuals between 25 and 29 years old owned homes, while over three-fifths of older householders were homeowners. Similarly, households with younger heads are less likely to contain children. Table 5 reports the fraction of households with children by age of head. in 1980, only one-third of households with head under age 25 included children, as compared with three-fifths of those with heads ages 25 to 34 and three-quarters of those in which the head was between 35 and 44 years old.