Business Services Industry
Business situation: preliminary estimates for the third quarter of 2004
Survey of Current Business, Dec, 2004 by Brian C. Moyer, Shelly Smith, David F. Sullivan, Christopher Falcone
Table 1. Real Gross Domestic Product and Components
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Gross domestic product (GDP) 4.2 4.5 3.3 3.9
Personal consumption expenditures 3.6 4.1 1.6 5.1
Durable goods 3.9 2.2 -0.3 17.2
Nondurable goods 5.1 6.7 0.1 4.8
Services 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.9
Gross private domestic investment 13.9 12.3 19.0 2.8
Fixed investment 10.5 4.5 13.9 8.8
Nonresidential 11.0 4.2 12.5 12.9
Structures 7.9 -7.6 6.9 -0.3
Equipment and software 12.0 8.0 14.2 17.2
Residential 9.6 5.0 16.5 1.7
Change in private inventories
Net exports of goods and services
Exports 17.5 7.3 7.3 6.3
Goods 16.1 9.1 6.0 9.1
Services 20.6 3.4 10.2 0.2
Imports 17.1 10.6 12.6 6.0
Goods 18.4 12.7 13.0 5.6
Services 11.1 1.2 10.6 8.3
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 1.6 2.5 2.2 1.2
Federal 4.8 7.1 2.7 4.7
National defense 11.6 10.6 1.9 9.8
Nondefense -7.5 0.2 4.4 -5.2
State and local -0.1 0.0 1.9 -0.8
Contribution to percent
change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Gross domestic product (GDP) 4.2 4.5 3.3 3.9
Personal consumption expenditures 2.50 2.90 1.10 3.53
Durable goods 0.33 0.19 -0.02 1.37
Nondurable goods 1.01 1.33 0.03 0.96
Services 1.15 1.39 1.10 1.21
Gross private domestic investment 2.04 1.86 2.85 0.46
Fixed investment 1.57 0.69 2.07 1.37
Nonresidential 1.07 0.42 1.21 1.27
Structures 0.18 -0.19 0.16 -0.01
Equipment and software 0.89 0.61 1.05 1.28
Residential 0.50 0.27 0.86 0.10
Change in private inventories 0.47 1.17 0.78 -0.91
Net exports of goods and services -0.66 -0.76 -1.06 -0.27
Exports 1.55 0.70 0.70 0.62
Goods 1.00 0.60 0.41 0.62
Services 0.56 0.10 0.30 0.01
Imports -2.22 -1.46 -1.77 -0.89
Goods -1.96 -1.43 -1.52 -0.69
Services -0.26 -0.03 -0.25 -0.20
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 0.31 0.48 0.41 0.23
Federal 0.33 0.48 0.18 0.32
National defense 0.50 0.47 0.09 0.44
Nondefense -0.18 0.00 0.10 -0.12
State and local -0.02 0.00 0.23 -0.09
Share of
current-
dollar
GDP
(percent)
2004
III
Gross domestic product (GDP) 100.0
Personal consumption expenditures 70.1
Durable goods 8.5
Nondurable goods 20.2
Services 41.4
Gross private domestic investment 16.5
Fixed investment 16.2
Nonresidential 10.5
Structures 2.4
Equipment and software 8.1
Residential 5.7
Change in private inventories 0.3
Net exports of goods and services -5.2
Exports 10.1
Goods 7.0
Services 3.0
Imports 15.3
Goods 12.8
Services 2.5
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 18.6
Federal 6.9
National defense 4.7
Nondefense 2.2
State and local 11.7
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.1.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.1.2. Shares are from NIPA table
1.1.10.
Table 2. Real Gross Domestic Product by Type of Product
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Gross domestic product (GDP) 4.2 4.5 3.3 3.9
Final sales of domestic
product 3.7 3.3 2.5 4.9
Change in private inventories
Goods 5.8 8.2 2.5 8.1
Services 3.1 3.0 2.3 2.6
Structures 5.4 0.7 12.7 -1.3
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output 2.9 8.8 -15.2 10.1
GDP excluding motor vehicle
output 4.2 4.3 4.0 3.7
Final sales of computers 29.0 0.1 0.1 20.9
GDP excluding final sales of
computers 4.0 4.5 3.3 3.8
Contribution to percent
change in real GDP
(percentage points)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Gross domestic product (GDP) 4.2 4.5 3.3 3.9
Final sales of domestic
product 3.71 3.32 2.52 4.86
Change in private inventories 0.47 1.17 0.78 -0.91
Goods 1.90 2.65 0.82 2.60
Services 1.77 1.76 1.30 1.48
Structures 0.52 0.07 1.19 -0.13
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output 0.11 0.30 -0.58 0.33
GDP excluding motor vehicle
output 4.08 4.18 3.88 3.62
Final sales of computers 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.18
GDP excluding final sales of
computers 3.93 4.48 3.30 3.77
Share of
current-
dollar
GDP
(percent)
2004
III
Gross domestic product (GDP) 100.0
Final sales of domestic
product 99.7
Change in private inventories 0.3
Goods 32.7
Services 57.2
Structures 10.1
Addenda:
Motor vehicle output 3.4
GDP excluding motor vehicle
output 96.6
Final sales of computers 1.0
GDP excluding final sales of
computers 99.0
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 1.2.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.2.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 1.2.5.
Table 3. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) 3.6 4.1 1.6 5.1
Durable goods 3.9 2.2 -0.3 17.2
Motor vehicles and parts -1.8 -5.8 -6.0 28.6
Furniture and household
equipment 9.8 11.1 7.4 11.6
Other (1) 7.4 6.2 -0.2 3.8
Nondurable goods 5.1 6.7 0.1 4.8
Food 2.6 8.1 2.3 4.2
Clothing and shoes 3.9 16.3 -5.3 6.1
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods 19.1 -2.3 -13.2 3.5
Other (2) 5.8 3.1 4.5 5.6
Services 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.9
Housing 0.8 2.1 2.0 2.4
Household operation 7.5 3.2 -0.9 0.0
Electricity and gas 17.5 3.5 -8.0 -3.0
Other household operation 1.6 3.1 4.0 2.0
Transportation -0.5 2.0 2.9 1.5
Medical care 3.1 3.2 4.4 5.0
Recreation 4.0 5.9 0.3 2.8
Other (3) 3.2 4.4 3.3 2.5
Contribution to percent
change in real PCE
(percentage points)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) 3.6 4.1 1.6 5.1
Durable goods 0.48 0.27 -0.03 1.96
Motor vehicles and parts -0.10 -0.33 -0.34 1.40
Furniture and household
equipment 0.41 0.45 0.31 0.48
Other (1) 0.17 0.15 -0.01 0.09
Nondurable goods 1.45 1.90 0.04 1.38
Food 0.36 1.10 0.32 0.59
Clothing and shoes 0.16 0.62 -0.22 0.24
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods 0.47 -0.06 -0.42 0.10
Other (2) 0.46 0.25 0.35 0.44
Services 1.64 1.98 1.56 1.74
Housing 0.13 0.33 0.30 0.37
Household operation 0.41 0.18 -0.05 0.00
Electricity and gas 0.35 0.08 -0.18 -0.06
Other household operation 0.05 0.10 0.13 0.07
Transportation -0.02 0.07 0.11 0.05
Medical care 0.52 0.55 0.74 0.84
Recreation 0.16 0.24 0.01 0.12
Other (3) 0.44 0.61 0.45 0.36
Share of
current-
dollar
PCE
(percent)
2004
III
Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) 100.0
Durable goods 12.2
Motor vehicles and parts 5.5
Furniture and household
equipment 4.3
Other (1) 2.4
Nondurable goods 28.8
Food 14.0
Clothing and shoes 3.9
Gasoline, fuel oil, and other
energy goods 3.0
Other (2) 8.0
Services 59.0
Housing 15.1
Household operation 5.5
Electricity and gas 2.1
Other household operation 3.3
Transportation 3.7
Medical care 17.0
Recreation 4.1
Other (3) 13.8
(1.) Includes jewelry and watches, opthalmic products and orthopedic
equipment, books and maps, bicycles and motorcycles, guns and sporting
equipment, photographic equipment, boats, and pleasure aircraft.
(2.) Includes tobacco, toilet articles, drug preparations and sundries,
stationery and writing supplies, toys, film, flowers, clearing
preparations and paper products, semidurable house furnishings, and
magazines and newspapers.
(3.) Includes personal care, personal business, education and research,
religious and welfare activities, and net foreign travel.
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 2.3.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 2.3.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 2.3.5.
Table 4. Real Private Fixed Investment
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Private fixed investment
(PFI) 10.5 4.5 13.9 8.8
Nonresidential 11.0 4.2 12.5 12.9
Structures 7.9 -7.6 6.9 -0.3
Commercial and health care -6.3 -9.1 21.3 0.6
Manufacturing -4.1 -16.8 -14.2 18.3
Power and communication 71.4 -13.4 -37.0 -21.1
Mining exploration, shafts,
and wells 13.7 6.7 20.0 9.6
Other structures (1) 2.3 -7.0 16.8 1.8
Equipment and software 12.0 8.0 14.2 17.2
Information processing
equipment and software 16.3 16.4 14.1 7.6
Computers and peripheral
equipment 31.5 6.5 26.5 21.0
Software (2) 9.3 16.9 8.7 7.3
Other (3) 15.0 22.1 12.7 0.9
Industrial equipment -4.5 6.6 2.1 27.2
Transportation equipment 11.9 -15.0 26.1 35.4
Other equipment (4) 16.5 8.3 16.1 23.0
Residential 9.6 5.0 16.5 1.7
Structures 9.5 4.9 16.7 1.6
Permanent site 21.6 6.8 9.0 3.0
Single family 24.8 7.2 8.9 2.6
Multifamily -4.4 2.9 9.8 6.1
Other structures (5) 7.2 2.1 30.5 -0.5
Equipment 2.7 11.9 3.7 8.8
Contribution to percent
change change in real PFI
(percentage points)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Private fixed investment
(PFI) 10.5 4.5 13.9 8.8
Nonresidential 7.20 2.73 8.11 8.19
Structures 1.22 -1.19 1.07 -0.05
Commercial and health care -0.42 -0.60 1.24 0.04
Manufacturing -0.03 -0.15 -0.12 0.13
Power and communication 1.30 -0.35 -1.03 -0.48
Mining exploration, shafts,
and wells 0.29 0.14 0.42 0.21
Other structures (1) 0.08 -0.25 0.55 0.06
Equipment and software 5.97 3.92 7.05 8.24
Information processing
equipment and software 4.11 4.01 3.67 1.96
Computers and peripheral
equipment 1.70 0.37 1.47 1.16
Software (2) 0.91 1.54 0.87 0.71
Other (3) 1.50 2.10 1.33 0.10
Industrial equipment -0.36 0.52 0.17 1.99
Transportation equipment 0.92 -1.26 1.88 2.48
Other equipment (4) 1.31 0.66 1.32 1.81
Residential 3.34 1.75 5.76 0.64
Structures 3.28 1.70 5.74 0.60
Permanent site 4.25 1.43 1.99 0.66
Single family 4.34 1.37 1.78 0.53
Multifamily -0.09 0.06 0.21 0.13
Other structures (5) -0.97 0.27 3.75 -0.06
Equipment 0.06 0.05 0.02 0.04
Share of
current-
dollar PFI
(percent)
2004
III
Private fixed investment
(PFI) 100.0
Nonresidential 64.6
Structures 14.7
Commercial and health care 6.3
Manufacturing 0.8
Power and communication 2.0
Mining exploration, shafts,
and wells 2.3
Other structures (1) 3.4
Equipment and software 49.9
Information processing
equipment and software 25.4
Computers and peripheral
equipment 5.8
Software (2) 9.5
Other (3) 10.0
Industrial equipment 8.1
Transportation equipment 8.0
Other equipment (4) 8.5
Residential 35.4
Structures 34.9
Permanent site 21.7
Single family 19.6
Multifamily 2.1
Other structures (5) 13.2
Equipment 0.5
(1.) Consists primarily of religious, educational, vocational, lodging,
railroads, farm, and amusement and recre-ational structures, net
purchases of used structures, and brokers' commissions on the sale of
structures.
(2.) Excludes software "embedded," or bundled, in computers and other
equipment.
(3.) Includes communication equipment, nonmedical instruments, medical
equipment and instruments, photocopy and related equipment, and office
and accounting equipment.
(4.) Consists primarily of furniture and fixtures, agricultural
machinery, construction machinery, mining and oiltield machinery,
service industry machinery, and electrical equipment not elsewhere
classified.
(5.) Consists primarily of manufactured homes, improvements,
dormitories, net purchases of used structures, and brokers'
commissions on the sale of residential structures.
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 5.3.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 5.3.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 5.3.5.
Table 5. Real Change in Private Inventories, by Industry
[Billions of chained (2000) dollars; seasonally adjusted at annual
rates]
Level
2003
III IV
Change in private
inventories (CIPI) -3.5 8.6
Farm -0.7 3.5
Mining, utilities, and construction 1.2 3.5
Manufacturing -20.4 -13.1
Durable-goods industries -17.7 -1.8
Nondurable-goods industries -2.9 -10.9
Wholesale trade 2.3 4.0
Durable-goods industries -6.9 9.7
Nondurable-goods industries 8.6 -5.2
Retail trade 13.7 9.4
Motor vehicle and parts dealers 4.3 -0.9
Food and beverage stores 0.8 -2.1
General merchandise stores 0.6 3.3
Other retail stores 8.2 9.2
Other industries 0.5 0.8
Residual (1) 0.5 -0.5
Addenda: Ratios of private
inventories to final sales of
domestic business:
Private inventories to final sales 2.45 2.42
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales 2.24 2.22
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales of goods and structures 3.59 3.55
Level
2004
I II III
Change in private
inventories (CIPI) 40.0 61.1 35.9
Farm 5.1 3.0 3.9
Mining, utilities, and construction -4.5 -1.7 5.1
Manufacturing 3.0 9.1 7.5
Durable-goods industries -2.2 5.9 6.2
Nondurable-goods industries 5.0 3.3 1.4
Wholesale trade 8.5 20.0 32.5
Durable-goods industries 11.1 16.4 25.5
Nondurable-goods industries -2.0 4.0 7.5
Retail trade 25.6 29.9 -19.2
Motor vehicle and parts dealers 18.7 17.1 -22.7
Food and beverage stores 0.3 1.6 -0.2
General merchandise stores 3.0 2.7 0.7
Other retail stores 4.3 8.9 1.9
Other industries 2.8 2.3 4.2
Residual (1) -1.6 -2.4 2.4
Addenda: Ratios of private
inventories to final sales of
domestic business:
Private inventories to final sales 2.42 2.43 2.41
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales 2.22 2.22 2.21
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales of goods and structures 3.54 3.55 3.50
Change from preceding
quarter
2003 2004
IV I II III
Change in private
inventories (CIPI) 12.1 31.4 21.1 -25.2
Farm 4.2 1.6 -2.1 0.9
Mining, utilities, and construction 2.3 -8.0 2.8 6.8
Manufacturing 7.3 16.1 6.1 -1.6
Durable-goods industries 15.9 -0.4 8.1 0.3
Nondurable-goods industries -8.0 15.9 -1.7 -1.9
Wholesale trade 1.7 4.5 11.5 12.5
Durable-goods industries 16.6 1.4 5.3 9.1
Nondurable-goods industries -13.8 3.2 6.0 3.5
Retail trade 4.3 16.2 4.3 -49.1
Motor vehicle and parts dealers -5.2 19.6 -1.6 -39.8
Food and beverage stores -2.9 2.4 1.3 -1.8
General merchandise stores 2.7 -0.3 -0.3 -2.0
Other retail store 1.0 -4.9 4.6 -7.0
Other industries 0.3 2.0 -0.5 1.9
Residual (1) -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 4.8
Addenda: Ratios of private
inventories to final sales of
domestic business:
Private inventories to final sales
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales
Nonfarm inventories to final
sales of goods and structures
(1.) The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum
of the most detailed lines. It reflects the fact that chained-dollar
estimates are usually not additive, because the quantity indexes on
which they are based embody weights of more than one period.
NOTE. Real change in private inventories is from NIPA table 5.6.6B, and
ratios of private inventories to final sales of domestic business are
from NIPA table 5.7.6B.
Table 6. Real Exports and Imports of Goods and Services
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding period
(percent)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Exports of goods and
services 17.5 7.3 7.3 6.3
Exports of goods (1) 16.1 9.1 6.0 9.1
Foods, feeds, and beverages -6.0 -30.0 -24.3 28.3
Industrial supplies and
materials 5.2 14.4 6.9 0.3
Capital goods, except
automotive 31.0 13.1 6.2 6.2
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts 14.8 5.1 8.2 35.0
Consumer goods, except
automotive 11.3 18.6 18.2 -0.3
Other 7.3 11.4 16.1 27.7
Exports of services (1) 20.6 3.4 10.2 0.2
Imports of goods and
services 17.1 10.6 12.6 6.0
Imports of goods (1) 18.4 12.7 13.0 5.6
Foods, feeds, and beverages 18.9 2.3 7.4 -10.1
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum and products 0.7 16.9 38.2 25.2
Petroleum and products 16.5 39.1 -33.1 5.3
Capital goods, except
automotive 26.0 13.4 30.6 13.9
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts 21.7 6.0 10.1 3.2
Consumer goods, except
automotive 21.9 9.6 20.5 -9.7
Other 11.8 -2.2 -10.7 16.4
Imports of services (1) 11.1 1.2 10.6 8.3
Addenda:
Exports of agricultural goods (2) -19.1 -23.2 -19.1 24.6
Exports of nonagricultural
goods 20.1 12.7 8.5 7.9
Imports of nonpetroleum
goods 18.6 9.8 20.9 5.6
Contribution to percent change
in real exports and imports
(percentage points)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Exports of goods and
services 17.5 7.3 7.3 6.3
Exports of goods (1) 11.21 6.30 4.19 6.28
Foods, feeds, and beverages -0.32 -1.83 -1.35 1.21
Industrial supplies and
materials 0.87 2.23 1.14 0.04
Capital goods, except
automotive 8.25 3.61 1.75 1.75
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts 1.13 0.38 0.60 2.33
Consumer goods, except
automotive 0.99 1.50 1.49 -0.03
Other 0.28 0.41 0.57 0.98
Exports of services (1) 6.24 1.04 3.06 0.05
Imports of goods and
services 17.1 10.6 12.6 6.0
Imports of goods (1) 15.11 10.41 10.82 4.67
Foods, feeds, and beverages 0.68 0.08 0.27 -0.37
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum and products 0.16 1.87 3.97 2.95
Petroleum and products 1.33 3.13 -3.88 0.51
Capital goods, except
automotive 4.83 2.55 5.43 2.57
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts 2.88 0.82 1.33 0.42
Consumer goods, except
automotive 4.64 2.08 4.21 -2.12
Other 0.60 -0.11 -0.51 0.70
Imports of services (1) 1.97 0.21 1.78 1.36
Addenda:
Exports of agricultural goods (2)
Exports of nonagricultural
goods
Imports of nonpetroleum
goods
Share of
current-
dollar
exports
and
imports
(percent)
2004
III
Exports of goods and
services 100.0
Exports of goods (1) 70.0
Foods, feeds, and beverages 4.6
Industrial supplies and
materials 17.0
Capital goods, except
automotive 28.1
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts 7.8
Consumer goods, except
automotive 8.6
Other 4.0
Exports of services (1) 30.0
Imports of goods and
services 100.0
Imports of goods (1) 83.5
Foods, feeds, and beverages 3.4
Industrial supplies and
materials, except
petroleum and products 13.2
Petroleum and products 10.0
Capital goods, except
automotive 19.4
Automotive vehicles, engines,
and parts 12.8
Consumer goods, except
automotive 20.2
Other 4.5
Imports of services (1) 16.5
Addenda:
Exports of agricultural goods (2) 5.1
Exports of nonagricultural
goods 64.9
Imports of nonpetroleum
goods 73.5
(1.) Exports and imports of certain goods, primarily military equipment
purchased and sold by the Federal Government, are included in services.
(2.) Includes parts of foods, feeds, and beverages, of nondurable
industrial supplies and materials, and of nondurable nonautomotive
consumer goods.
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 4.2.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 4.2.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 4.2.5.
Table 7. Real Government Consumption Expenditures
and Gross Investment
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change from preceding
period (percent)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment (CEGI) 1.6 2.5 2.2 1.2
Consumption expenditures 2.0 1.9 1.0 3.1
Gross investment -0.3 5.5 8.3 -7.0
Federal 4.8 7.1 2.7 4.7
National defense 11.6 10.6 1.9 9.8
Consumption expenditures 10.9 7.2 4.1 9.7
Gross investment 16.8 37.2 -12.0 10.6
Nondefense -7.5 0.2 4.4 -0.2
Consumption expenditures -8.7 -0.3 -0.7 -2.2
Gross investment 1.7 3.9 44.0 -22.4
State and local -0.1 0.0 1.9 -0.8
Consumption expenditures 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.4
Gross investment -4.1 -1.0 10.0 -0.9
Contribution to percent
change in real CEGI
(percentage points)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment (CEGI) 1.6 2.5 2.2 1.2
Consumption expenditures 1.67 1.61 0.81 2.50
Gross investment -0.05 0.94 1.41 -1.27
Federal 1.71 2.56 0.99 1.71
National defense 2.66 2.53 0.47 2.36
Consumption expenditures 2.20 1.53 0.87 2.04
Gross investment 0.46 1.00 -0.40 0.32
Nondefense -0.95 0.03 0.52 -0.64
Consumption expenditures -0.98 -0.03 -0.07 -0.23
Gross investment 0.03 0.06 0.59 -0.41
State and local -0.09 -0.01 1.23 -0.49
Consumption expenditures 0.45 0.12 0.01 0.69
Gross investment -0.54 -0.12 1.22 -1.18
Share of
current-
dollar
CEGI
(percent)
2004
III
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment (CEGI) 100.0
Consumption expenditures 82.7
Gross investment 17.3
Federal 37.1
National defense 25.3
Consumption expenditures 22.2
Gross investment 3.2
Nondefense 11.8
Consumption expenditures 10.3
Gross investment 1.6
State and local 62.9
Consumption expenditures 50.2
Gross investment 12.6
NOTE. Percent changes are from NIPA table 3.9.1, and contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 3.9.2. Shares are calculated from
NIPA table 3.9.5.
Table 8. Price Indexes
[Percent change at annual rates; based on seasonally adjusted index
numbers (2000=100)]
Change from preceding period
(percent)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Gross domestic purchases 1.4 3.4 3.5 1.8
Personal consumption
expenditures 1.2 3.3 3.1 1.1
Durable goods -4.3 0.0 -0.1 -3.1
Nondurable goods 0.5 5.3 6.6 0.9
Services 2.7 3.0 2.1 2.1
Gross private domestic
investment 2.7 2.1 4.4 3.1
Fixed investment 2.8 2.0 4.3 3.1
Nonresidential 1.2 0.3 1.7 1.0
Structures 1.4 4.8 7.6 9.8
Equipment and software 1.2 -1.1 0.1 -1.5
Residential 5.8 5.4 9.1 7.0
Change in private inventories
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 1.0 5.1 4.3 3.4
Federal 1.0 6.6 3.0 1.6
National defense 1.3 5.7 3.5 1.8
Nondefense 0.3 8.3 1.9 1.1
State and local 1.0 4.2 5.2 4.4
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
Food 4.1 2.8 4.2 2.1
Energy goods and services -7.1 27.0 24.9 6.3
Excluding food and energy 1.5 2.5 2.5 1.6
Personal consumptions
expenditures:
Food 3.9 2.6 3.9 2.6
Energy goods and services -8.5 26.7 26.5 4.0
Excluding food and energy 1.3 2.1 1.7 0.7
Gross domestic product 1.6 2.8 3.2 1.3
Contribution to percent change in
gross domestic purchases prices
(percentage points)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Gross domestic purchases 1.4 3.4 3.50 1.80
Personal consumption
expenditures 0.82 2.19 2.08 0.74
Durable goods -0.37 0.00 -0.01 -0.25
Nondurable goods 0.11 1.00 1.25 0.18
Services 1.08 1.20 0.84 0.81
Gross private domestic
investment 0.40 0.32 0.68 0.48
Fixed investment 0.40 0.30 0.64 0.47
Nonresidential 0.12 0.03 0.17 0.10
Structures 0.03 0.10 0.17 0.21
Equipment and software 0.09 -0.08 0.01 -0.11
Residential 0.29 0.28 0.47 0.37
Change in private inventories -0.01 0.02 0.04 0.01
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 0.18 0.89 0.77 0.59
Federal 0.06 0.42 0.20 0.10
National defense 0.06 0.25 0.15 0.08
Nondefense 0.01 0.18 0.04 0.02
State and local 0.11 0.47 0.57 0.49
Addenda:
Gross domestic purchases:
Food 0.38 0.27 0.40 0.20
Energy goods and services -0.29 0.98 0.94 0.26
Excluding food and energy 1.31 2.16 2.19 1.35
Personal consumptions
expenditures:
Food
Energy goods and services
Excluding food and energy
Gross domestic product
NOTE. Most percent changes are from NIPA table 1.6.7; percent changes
for personal consumption expenditures on energy goods and services and
for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy are
calculated from index numbers in NIPA table 2.3.4. Contributions to
percent change are from NIPA table 1.6.8.
Table 9. Preliminary and Advance Estimates for the Third Quarter
of 2004
[Seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Percent change from
preceding quarter
Preliminary Advance Preliminary
estimate estimate advance
Gross domestic product
(GDP) 3.9 3.7 0.2
Personal consumption
expenditures 5.1 4.6 0.5
Durable goods 17.2 16.8 0.4
Nondurablegoods 4.8 3.9 0.9
Services 2.9 2.7 0.2
Gross private domestic
investment 2.8 5.2 -2.4
Fixed investment 8.8 8.5 0.3
Nonresidential 12.9 11.7 1.2
Structures -0.3 1.4 -1.7
Equipment and software 17.2 14.9 2.3
Residential 1.7 3.1 -1.4
Change in private inventories
Net exports of goods and
services
Exports 6.3 5.1 1.2
Goods 9.1 7.8 1.3
Services 0.2 -0.8 1.0
Imports 6.0 7.7 -1.7
Goods 5.6 7.5 -1.9
Services 8.3 8.8 -0.5
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 1.2 1.4 -0.2
Federal 4.7 4.6 0.1
National defense 9.8 9.3 0.5
Nondefense -5.2 -4.7 -0.5
State and local -0.8 -0.5 -0.3
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic
product 4.9 4.2 0.7
Gross domestic purchases price
index 1.8 1.8 0.0
GDP price index 1.3 1.3 0.0
Contribution to percent change
in real GDP
Preliminary Advance Preliminary
estimate estimate advance
Gross domestic product
(GDP) 3.9 3.7 0.2
Personal consumption
expenditures 3.53 3.23 0.30
Durable goods 1.37 1.33 0.04
Nondurablegoods 0.96 0.79 0.17
Services 1.21 1.10 0.11
Gross private domestic
investment 0.46 0.85 -0.39
Fixed investment 1.37 1.33 0.04
Nonresidential 1.27 1.15 0.12
Structures -0.01 0.03 -0.04
Equipment and software 1.28 1.12 0.16
Residential 0.10 0.18 -0.08
Change in private inventories -0.91 -0.48 -0.43
Net exports of goods and
services -0.27 -0.62 0.35
Exports 0.62 0.51 0.11
Goods 0.62 0.53 0.09
Services 0.01 -0.02 0.03
Imports -0.89 -1.13 0.24
Goods -0.69 -0.92 0.23
Services -0.20 -0.21 0.01
Government consumption
expenditures and gross
investment 0.23 0.26 -0.03
Federal 0.32 0.31 0.01
National defense 0.44 0.42 0.02
Nondefense -0.12 -0.11 -0.01
State and local -0.09 -0.05 -0.04
Addenda:
Final sales of domestic
product 4.86 4.19 0.67
Gross domestic purchases price
index
GDP price index
NOTE. The preliminary estimates for the third quarter of 2004
incorporate the following revised or additional major source data that
were not available when the advance estimates were prepared.
Personal consumption expenditures: Revised retail
sales for August and September, and revised estimates
of electricity usage for July.
Nonresidential fixed investment: Construction put-in-place
data for July and August (revised) and
September, manufacturers' shipments of machinery
and equipment for September (revised), and manufacturers'
shipments of complete civilian aircraft for
September.
Residential fixed investment: Construction put-in-place
data for July and August (revised) and September.
Change in private inventories: Manufacturers' and
trade inventories for August (revised) and September
(newly available and revised), and crop and livestock
estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture for
2003 (revised) and 2004 (projected).
Exports and imports of goods and services: Exports
and imports of goods for August (revised) and September.
Governments coumption expenditures and gross
investment: Revised state and local construction put-in-place
data for July and August (revised) and Septemenr.
Wages and salaries: Revised employment, average
hourly earnings, and average weekly hours for August
and September, and tabulations of wages and salaries
for the second quarter of employees covered by state
unemployment insurance.
GDP price: Revised export and import prices for
July through Septemebr, revised unit-value index for
petroleum imports for Septemebr, seasonally adjusted
consumer price indexes for July through September
(revised), and revised prices of single-family houses
under construction for the quarter.
Table 10. Corporate Profits
[Seasonally adjusted]
Billions of dollars (annual rate)
Change from
Level preceding quarter
2004 2003 2004
III IV I
Current production measures:
Corporate profits 1,146.3 72.0 36.5
Domestic industries 952.1 29.6 47.0
Financial 301.1 -0.5 19.8
Nonfinancial 651.0 30.0 27.3
Rest of the world 194.1 42.4 -10.5
Receipts from the rest of
the world 311.9 40.3 5.6
Less: Payments to the
rest of the world 117.8 -2.2 16.2
Less: Taxes on corporate
income 261.4 13.6 4.2
Equals: Profits after tax 884.9 58.4 32.3
Net dividends 424.0 2.3 7.0
Undistributed profits from
current production 460.9 56.2 25.3
Net cash flow 1,293.8 63.2 5.9
Industry profits:
Profits with IVA 925.0 64.7 -16.5
Domestic industries 730.9 22.3 -0.1
Financial 259.9 -0.8 8.4
Nonfinancial 471.0 23.1 -14.3
Rest of the world 194.1 42.4 -10.5
Addenda:
Profits before tax (without IVA
and CCAdj) 964.3 85.2 -3.8
Profits after tax (without IVA
and CCAdj) 703.0 71.6 -8.0
IVA -39.3 -20.5 -12.7
CCAdj 221.2 7.3 53.0
Billions of dollars
(annual rate)
Change from
preceding quarter
2004
II III
Current production measures:
Corporate profits 8.3 -27.6
Domestic industries 28.3 -36.5
Financial -7.9 -46.7
Nonfinancial 36.2 10.2
Rest of the world -20.0 8.8
Receipts from the rest of
the world 6.6 6.3
Less: Payments to the
rest of the world 26.6 -2.5
Less: Taxes on corporate
income 14.7 -9.8
Equals: Profits after tax -6.4 -17.8
Net dividends 9.8 10.8
Undistributed profits from
current production -16.2 -28.6
Net cash flow -5.7 20.4
Industry profits:
Profits with IVA 15.2 -15.6
Domestic industries 35.2 -24.3
Financial -7.3 -46.5
Nonfinancial 42.4 22.2
Rest of the world -20.0 8.8
Addenda:
Profits before tax (without IVA
and CCAdj) 25.9 -24.0
Profits after tax (without IVA
and CCAdj) 11.2 -14.1
IVA -10.8 8.5
CCAdj -6.9 -12.1
Percent change from
preceding quarter
(quarterly rate)
2003 2004
IV I II III
Current production measures:
Corporate profits 6.8 3.2 0.7 -2.4
Domestic industries 3.3 5.1 2.9 -3.7
Financial -0.1 5.9 -2.2 -13.4
Nonfinancial 5.5 4.7 6.0 1.6
Rest of the world 24.4 -4.9 -9.7 4.7
Receipts from the rest of
the world 15.9 1.9 2.2 2.1
Less: Payments to the
rest of the world -2.7 20.8 28.4 -2.1
Less: Taxes on corporate
income 5.7 1.6 5.7 -3.6
Equals: Profits after tax 7.1 3.7 -0.7 -2.0
Net dividends 0.6 1.8 2.4 2.6
Undistributed profits from
current production 13.2 5.3 -3.2 -5.8
Net cash flow 5.2 0.5 -0.4 1.6
Industry profits:
Profits with IVA 7.4 -1.8 1.6 -1.7
Domestic industries 3.2 -0.8 4.9 -3.2
Financial -0.3 2.7 -2.3 -15.2
Nonfinancial 5.8 -3.4 10.4 5.0
Rest of the world 24.4 -4.9 -9.7 4.7
Addenda:
Profits before tax (without IVA
and CCAdj) 9.7 -0.4 2.7 -2.4
Profits after tax (without IVA
and CCAdj) 11.2 -1.1 1.6 -2.0
IVA
CCAdj 4.1 28.3 -2.9 -5.2
NOTE. Levels of these and other profits series are shown in NIPA
tables 1.12, 1.14, 1.15, and 6.16D.
CCAdj Capital consumption adjustment
IVA Inventory valuation adjustment
Table 11. Government Sector Current Receipts and Expenditures
[Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted at annual rates]
Change
from
preceding
Level quarter
2004 2003
III IV
Current receipts 3,198.8 104.4
Current expenditures 3,566.5 21.7
Net government saving -367.7 82.6
Social insurance funds 69.7 2.8
Other 437.4 79.8
Federal
Current receipts 1,963.9 84.2
Current tax receipts 1,103.9 75.6
Personal current taxes. 794.4 63.3
Taxes on production and imports 89.5 1.6
Taxes on corporate income 211.7 10.6
Taxes from the rest of the world 8.3 0.1
Contributions for government social insurance 806.3 7.9
Income receipts on assets 22.8 1.2
Current transfer receipts 26.6 -0.2
Current surplus of government enterprises 4.4 -0.5
Current expenditures 2,340.1 30.4
Consumption expenditures 713.0 8.3
National defense 487.1 13.1
Nondefense 226.0 -4.8
Current transfer payments 1368.0 19.5
Government social benefits 1004.2 8.0
To persons 1001.2 7.9
To the rest of the world 2.9 0.1
Other current transfer payments 363.9 11.4
Grants-in-aid to state and local
governments 342.1 14.2
To the rest of the world 21.8 -2.8
Interest payments 220.0 4.6
Subsidies 39.0 -2.1
Less: Wage accruals less disbursements 0.0 0.0
Net Federal Government saving -76.2 53.8
Social insurance funds 68.2 2.8
Other -444.4 51.0
State and local
Current receipts 1,576.9 34.4
Current tax receipts 1,043.4 16.9
Personal current taxes 249.9 4.4
Taxes on production and imports 754.6 10.3
Taxes on corporate income 39.0 2.2
Contributions for government social insurance 16.8 0.4
Income receipts on assets 83.3 1.1
Current transfer receipts 431.3 16.2
Federal grants-in-aid 342.1 14.2
Other 89.2 2.0
Current surplus of government enterprises 2.1 -0.1
Current expenditures 1,568.5 5.6
Consumption expenditures 1,104.8 5.3
Government social benefits 369.9 -3.4
Interest payments 93.1 1.8
Subsidies 0.7 1.9
Less: Wage accruals less disbursements 0.0 0.0
Net state and local government saving 8.5 28.8
Social insurance funds 1.5 0.1
Other 7.0 28.7
Addendum:
Net lending or net borrowing (-) (1) -514.0 88.4
Federal 429.2 61.3
State and local -84.8 27.1
Change from preceding
quarter
2004
I II III
Current receipts 30.8 61.1 17.7
Current expenditures 66.2 43.6 23.7
Net government saving -35.3 17.5 -6.0
Social insurance funds 12.1 6.7 2.5
Other -47.4 10.7 -8.4
Federal
Current receipts 14.7 33.8 14.8
Current tax receipts -1.0 24.6 5.4
Personal current taxes. -4.2 13.2 12.9
Taxes on production and imports -0.6 0.3 0.2
Taxes on corporate income 3.0 11.6 -7.8
Taxes from the rest of the world 0.7 -0.3 0.0
Contributions for government social insurance 18.4 9.7 8.7
Income receipts on assets -2.6 -0.7 0.6
Current transfer receipts 0.5 0.1 0.4
Current surplus of government enterprises -0.4 -0.1 -0.1
Current expenditures 26.5 22.8 11.0
Consumption expenditures 19.8 9.2 12.7
National defense 15.0 8.4 13.5
Nondefense 4.8 0.7 -0.6
Current transfer payments 15.3 2.0 0.1
Government social benefits 13.7 6.8 11.2
To persons 13.7 6.8 11.1
To the rest of the world 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other current transfer payments 1.7 -4.8 -11.0
Grants-in-aid to state and local
governments -11.2 5.9 -9.8
To the rest of the world 12.9 -10.7 -1.2
Interest payments -3.6 9.6 -0.7
Subsidies -3.5 -1.0 0.3
Less: Wage accruals less disbursements 1.5 -3.0 1.5
Net Federal Government saving -11.8 11.0 3.8
Social insurance funds 12.0 6.7 2.3
Other -23.8 4.3 1.5
State and local
Current receipts 4.8 33.3 -7.0
Current tax receipts 12.3 24.9 7.4
Personal current taxes 1.4 10.8 0.8
Taxes on production and imports 9.9 12.2 8.2
Taxes on corporate income 0.9 2.0 -1.5
Contributions for government social insurance 0.5 0.4 0.4
Income receipts on assets 0.5 0.4 0.7
Current transfer receipts -8.2 8.1 -14.7
Federal grants-in-aid -11.2 5.9 -9.8
Other 3.0 2.2 -4.9
Current surplus of government enterprises -0.2 -0.6 -0.8
Current expenditures 28.3 26.9 2.8
Consumption expenditures 13.5 12.0 13.0
Government social benefits 14.0 14.7 -11.1
Interest payments 1.3 0.1 1.0
Subsidies -0.5 0.0 0.0
Less: Wage accruals less disbursements 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net state and local government saving -23.5 6.5 -9.8
Social insurance funds 0.1 0.1 0.1
Other -23.5 6.3 -9.9
Addendum:
Net lending or net borrowing (-) (1) -38.4 7.7 -0.3
Federal -14.8 12.3 -4.1
State and local -23.6 -4.6 3.8
(1.) "Net lending or borrowing" is similar to "net financial
investment" in the flow-of-funds accounts prepared by the Federal
Reserve Board. The two measures differ primarily because government net
lending or borrowing is estimated from data for transactions, whereas
net financial investment is estimated from data for financial assets.
There are also small conceptual differences, such as the classification
of the Federal Government's railroad retirement and veterans life
insurance programs.
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