BEA's strategic plan for 2001-2005

Survey of Current Business, May, 2002

Currently, however, statutory barriers generally prevent statistical agencies from sharing data they collect with other agencies (especially for data production purposes), and new legislation would be required to enhance access across agencies. It should be noted that some of these barriers have played an important role in safeguarding the privacy of survey respondents because there are very different confidentiality standards under which various Federal statistical agencies operate. Hence, any expansion of data sharing powers would likely have to be coordinated with changes in confidentiality standards.

A good way to make progress on data sharing is to build on the previous efforts. The Statistical Efficiency Act of 1999 is a good example of the types of reforms that should be considered. The Act included enhanced data sharing among Federal statistical agencies and also strengthened confidentiality provisions to safeguard the privacy of survey respondents. It is important to note that the House passed the Act in a bipartisan fashion, but it stalled in the Senate.

BEA should also continue to seek opportunities to partner with the private sector in order to boost efficiencies. To be sure, the private sector could help collect data and even help to process and disseminate it. For example, retail chains have extensive computer tracking systems for real-time purchases--a wealth of untapped data on consumer spending patterns. And high-tech firms have excellent information on inventories, sales, and prices, which could help to provide a better snapshot of innovations that are driving the "new economy." The key issue is how can a partnership be structured so that it does not compromise the high quality of Federal statistics that we have come to expect: How difficult would it be for BEA and other statistical agencies to set standards and oversee the data collection efforts of the private sector? Is it possible to carefully design safeguards to ensure privacy and confidentiality? Can contractual obligations be enforced to guarantee that private sector partners would maintain the quality and comparability of the data over time? Would partnering with the private sector allow Federal statistical agencies to respond more flexibly to structural changes in the economy? What cost advantages might arise from such partnerships?

Robert E. Hall

Robert and Carole McNeil Joint Professor of Economics, Stanford University, and Chair of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee

I appreciate the opportunity to represent the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) at this session on the future of the accounts. Let me begin by reacting to some of the various suggestions that other panel members have provided. First, it's an interesting question as to the value of a monthly estimate of GDP. I know that from my perspective, as Chair of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, we are uncertain about how we might use a monthly estimate of GDP in our work. The current recession has made us think more than before about the relative importance of employment and output. In past recessions, the two have moved together, because productivity remained constant or fell during the recession. With the continuation of rapid productivity growth during the current recession, we find a mild contraction in output (quarterly GDP) with a normal contraction in employment. Monthly GDP would assist in determining peak and trough dates, especially to those whose definitions of recessions emphasize output. I personally (not as Chair) tend to emphasize employment, so quarterly GDP would play a fairly small role in my personal chronology.