2004: A Year of Portentous Change

American Demographics, Dec 1, 2003 by Sandra Yin, Louise Witt

Jaya Saxena

17-year-old high school student New York

My friends and I like to think that we have better things to spend our time on than fashion. Girls at our school get up at 5 a.m. to straighten their hair and put on makeup. I don't have that much money to spend, so when I buy an article of clothing, I want it to last. People are becoming conscious that when fashion comes around, you can't predict where it's going. You can spend a lot of effort wearing something that's popular for a month and then when you wear it a year later, it looks so 2003. In school the other day, I saw four popular girls wearing white shirts with tight jeans tucked into Ugg boots. There was a time when wearing the exact same thing as someone else would be considered a major fashion don't. I dress simply: jeans, a T-shirt and sneakers. With that, you can't go wrong.

Neil Howe

Co-author of Millennials Rising (Vintage, 2000) and founder, LifeCourse Associates, a marketing firm Great Falls. Va.

For the first time in a long time, you'll see increased mainstream political activity and increased voter participation rates by college students. This is the first election where the people occupying colleges are Millennials, born 1982 and after. Millennials are capable of participating in mainstream politics, unlike Gen Xers, who believed in splinter parties. They're also interested in mainstream issues like taxes, going to war, deficits - things that adults ought to be interested in. They are not worrying about what color Clinton's underwear is.

Candace Corlett

Principal, WSL Strategic Retail, a marketing consultancy New York

Shoppers will focus on discount stores where they get great value. It's the new normal. Everyone is adjusting to reduced expectations about their finances: 44 percent don't expect their financial situations to get better next year. We asked people in July where they are shopping more. Thirty percent of them said dollar stores, 11 percent said discount stores and 14 percent said discount clothing stores. Conversely, the stores with the biggest drops were the darlings of the 1990s: 47 percent said they were shopping less at specialty clothing stores. Those are the kinds of choices people will make in 2004.

John Zogby

President and CEO, Zogby International, a polling firm Utica, N.Y.

Look for a return of the angry voter. Anxiety levels will be high. Right now, 1 in 5 voters tells us that they live in a household where someone is afraid of losing a job in the next 12 months. There's also anxiety about America's place in the world and our vulnerability to terrorist attacks. Look also for a very competitive election. I think we have a 50/50 president and a 50/50 nation. There is not a doubt in my mind that 2004 is going to be an interesting year. That's an easy prediction.

Carl Rohde

Cultural anthropologist, University of Utrecht and head of Signs of the Time, a group of qualitative trend research institutes The Netherlands

Males worldwide are confused. A big trend is that we're evolving from a past based on physical labor into a future of communication. Males are not automatically the first sex anymore. Women communicate as well as men do. Rollerblading and skateboarding are cool among males worldwide. Why? It's all about male physical prowess. We will continue to see masculinity trends in the "new roughness." You see it in combat clothes, FHM magazine, Fox's Fight Club, and over-the-top, ridiculous movies about rough guys.