Turning Up the Heat; The temperature is rising and so is the debate - Statistical Data Included

American Demographics, July 1, 2001

It's hot outside, but do Americans think it's getting hotter? Do they care enough to do something about it? President Bush seems to think not. His refusal to sign the Kyoto accord this spring set off a storm of worldwide protest. Americans have not yet reacted as sharply as Europeans - not surprising given Americans' conflicting sentiments about the country's relative responsibility for the threat of global warming.

In fact, public opinion in the United States has been remarkably stable on the issue. The percentage of Americans expressing concern in a 1989 Gallup poll is locked in a dead heat with the figure today: In each poll, 63 percent of respondents said they worried a fair amount or great deal about Earth's impending warmth. According to a March 2001 Time/CNN poll, most Americans, 67 percent, think the President should develop a plan to reduce the emission of gas that may contribute to global warming. Perhaps July temperatures will cause more Americans to put the heat on the administration, though a shift in views seems likely.

It's Too Darn Hot

Most Americans are aware of global warming and believe in the generally accepted scientific causes of global warming, but significantly fewer are concerned about the impact global warming might have. In an August 2000 Harris poll, Americans were asked about their beliefs concerning global warming and specifically about the relationship between temperature changes and forest fires. Many more believed in global warming in general than as a cause of fires. (Only 35 percent attributed last summer's fires to temperature trends.)

Have you ever seen, heard or read about the theory of global warming - that average temperatures are rising slowly and will continue to rise mainly because of the burning of coal, oil, and other fuels?

Do you believe the theory that increased carbon dioxide and other gases released into the atmosphere will, if unchecked, lead to global warming and an increase in average temperatures?

Do you think that the possibility of global warming should be treated as a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, or not a serious problem?

Warming Gets Worse

Less than a year after the Harris poll, American concern about global warming has grown. A March 2001 Time/CNN poll conducted by Yankelovich Partners/Harris focused on American concerns about global warming and their willingness to take action. The poll addressed three major areas: concern over global warming, desire for government to take action, and willingness to make personal sacrifices to address the problem.

Overall, Americans are surprisingly willing to make personal sacrifices to combat global warming, though they are somewhat less inclined to pay higher gas prices now than they were in 1990, when gas prices were much lower. In 1990, a majority (59 percent) were willing to accept a 25 cent per gallon price increase, compared with 48 percent today.

Americans express the contradictory idea that while business interests have a harmful effect on the environment, environmental regulation should not have a harmful effect on business. At the same time, they want President Bush to override business sector objections to governmental action; 67 percent think Bush "should develop a plan to reduce the emission of gases that may contribute to global warming."

WHAT AMERICANS THINK:

Is global warming a very serious problem, a fairly serious problem, not a very serious problem, or not at all serious?

When it comes to protecting the environment does the government give in to business interests too often?

WHAT AMERICANS WILL DO:

Would you be willing to pay an extra 25 cents per gallon of gas to reduce pollution and global warming?

Would you personally be willing to support tough government actions to help reduce global warming even if each of the following happened as a result?

Kyoto or Not

In a December 2000 poll conducted by Zogby International, global warming questions were framed around two aspects of the issue: the extent to which America should be held to higher standards than other countries and the relative costs to American industry. The questions made no mention of potential environmental or diplomatic benefits of the pact. This may account for the comparatively low level of support shown for Kyoto in this poll relative to other polls on the issue.

In an earlier October 2000 survey, Zogby asked Americans the following question: "Which candidate is most likely to get your support with regard to the global warming treaty? Bush-Cheney oppose the Kyoto Global Warming Treaty, because it places tough standards on U.S. industries and little or no restrictions on industries in developing nations, that would cost Americans jobs and raise costs to consumers. Gore-Lieberman support the treaty, which requires American businesses to meet environmental and human rights standards that may or may not be imposed on industries in developing nations." The winner? Bush-Cheney: 46 percent to Gore-Lieberman, 42 percent.

Which of the following three statements reflects your values?