Roundtable discussion: Lust for Statistics - Panel Discussion

American Demographics, March 1, 2001

For those with an affinity for numbers, the decade-long wait is finally over.

The oasis is in sight. Demographers and researchers, who have awaited more accurate numbers on the makeup of America for 10 years, finally get to quench their thirst. Amid the changeover from a manufacturing to a knowledge-based national economy, diversity is the theme that underlies the huge national database of people and numbers. Detailed results of Census 2000 will begin to trickle out in the coming months, and social scientists, researchers, and strategists will get first dibs on plumbing the data. In late December, the Census Bureau launched the grand countdown by announcing America's population figures - 52 numbers in all, which included national and state population counts. [See Sidebar]

That was just a tease. This month and next, the bureau will develop analyses that will lead to redistricting and the apportionment of federal funds. In anticipation of all the fun to come, American Demographics canvassed some of the country's leading demographers and market researchers for their first-blush view of Census 2000. Race and ethnicity information is, by far, the most anticipated piece of the census pie. Previously, the bureau limited racial identification to a single race, but Census 2000 allowed Americans to identify themselves as more than one race, leaving the door open to a seemingly endless combination of racial and ethnic identities. Researchers of all types are anxiously awaiting a first peek into America's true colors.

Between June and September, the bureau has promised a plethora of additional statistics: age, sex, relationship status, household type, migration - and more race data. By then, we'll learn the age of those races. How old on average are, say, Hispanics, blacks, whites, and all combinations thereof? The numbers may perhaps be the final wake-up call for marketers. Among the predictions likely to be confirmed: Younger America is more racially diverse, and the oldest age groups have the greatest percentage of whites. For a complete calendar of census release dates, check the bureau's Web site, www.census.gov. For a sharper view of how the numbers appear to add up, read on.

Q: What does the data already released tell you?

FREY: Migration to the Sunbelt is no longer flowing exclusively to the traditional Southern and Western states like California, Texas, and Florida. Rather, migratory trends are creating a "new Sunbelt" - states in the Sunbelt region that grew more in the '90s than in the '80s - including Nevada, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Georgia, and North Carolina. These are states that some people previously characterized as backwater, but now we're seeing that they will continue to be very strong magnets.

FORSTALL: The state totals were, without exception, higher than estimated, notably for the District of Columbia. This suggests that the population of older central cities may turn out to be higher than anticipated. If so, the race and ethnic composition information in comparison to 1990 census numbers will be of special interest. Is it a recent tide of immigration that has caused the unexpected gains? Will we find that older cities like St. Louis, New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia have actually grown significantly - or had much smaller losses than expected? If older cities are actually growing, redistricting will not reduce their political clout as much as has been the case after the last few census counts. Diminishing political clout for these older cities may finally be reversing.

HODGES: Our immediate interest is in the redistricting data. Although limited to total population and population by race and Hispanic ethnicity (as well as an age break at 18), these data will provide us with the first small area counts for Census 2000 geography. It will also provide a new base for estimates of population and population by race and ethnicity. Although there are other Census 2000 products of interest, the "main event" for many business users is Summary File 3 [scheduled for release between June and September, 2002]. The file will provide a wealth of tabulations from the census long form, including income, home value, education, occupation, language, commuting, disability, and many others.

SPAR: The really important information will come out by April 1 - the deadline for producing the Redistricting File, which contains data by race and age, down to the block level. Business is going to start looking at these data on April 2. I doubt that businesses looked too closely at the state data - it's too large of a geographic area for business purposes. Projections of state population were already available and there weren't many surprises in the actual numbers.

Q: What data are you most looking forward to getting your hands on?

FREY: The new data coming out on race is on everyone's front burner. For most of the country, the responses will still be predominantly single race (i.e. black, white, Asian), but in areas like Los Angeles, New York, and South Florida, we will gain important new insight into the result of the melting pot on intermarriage.