Odd Gen out

American Demographics,  May 1, 2004  by Joan Engebretson

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Byline: JOAN ENGEBRETSON

Trendsetting Generation X types used to be all over. Clad in flannel shirts or bound for Lollapalooza, we saw them everywhere from Seattle grunge-rock haunts to Paris runways to the cover of Newsweek. Today, this generation - born between 1965 and 1976 - is forming families and entering its peak-earning years. But when it comes to television, Gen X is practically off the radar. With a few notable exceptions, such as Trading Spaces and Sex and the City, today's thirtysomethings rank as TV's accidental demo for programmers and a virtual black hole for advertisers trying to reach them with marketing messages. Fear has set in.

"The median age of network television viewers is well above even the top end of the 25- to 39-year-old age group, and it's not much better with cable," says Jon Mandel, president of media buying agency Mediacom.

Another raft of network and cable TV series came down pilot pipeline this spring, and Hollywood and Madison Avenue's bets appeared again to be oddly placed. The age group that has forever powered consumer spending - the young adult in his or her prime family-, household-formation and peak-earning years - was missing in action amid focus on the two flanking generations, Boomers and Generation Y. One can understand the TV industry's hesitance to risk alienating the juggernaut Boomer group that has been the goose that laid the golden egg for the better part of three decades. What's more, Gen Y represents an about-to-be mega-sized population that's expected to reinvigorate the economy for decades to come.

But, where does that leave X, marketing and media segmentation's perennial second-class citizenry? More important, if the smaller population cohort of Xers and their earnings, family and household formation behaviors are expected to galvanize spending along the lines that Boomers did during their late 20s into and through their 30s, then where will TV fit in as a spending catalyst? In November 1990, when the 18-to-35 age cohort was dominated by Boomers the average prime-time network show received a 6.8 rating, according to Nielsen Media Research. As of November 2003, when Generation X dominated the same age group, the average prime-time network show received a rating of only 2.4.

In 1990, when Boomers were age 26 to 44, that segment accounted for 49 percent of consumer spending, with expenditures of around $31,830 per household. By 2000, when Boomers were 36 to 54, their per capita spending increased 30 percent - to $45,631 per household.

By 2000, when Gen X dominated the 25- to 44-year-old group, that category generated only 44 percent of consumer spending. Nevertheless, that 44 percent constituted nearly $2 trillion in 2000 - and per capita expenditures should rise as Gen X moves into its 40s, just as it did for Baby Boomers as they made the same transition. That's a potentially large prize for advertisers that can capture Gen X loyalty today.

Top TV advertisers insist that they want to reach 25- to 39-year-olds, but often lump them in with a much broader audience, targeting anyone between the ages of 18 and 54 with the same message and through the same medium. That demographic includes all of Generation X as well as parts of the older Baby Boom and the younger, under-25 Generation Y. More problematic, some say, is that Boomer sensibilities continue to dominate much of that mainstream programming.

Boomers dominance may have seemed less oppressive when marketers looked at Gen X as trendsetters. But the Gen Y cohort now has taken over as "Merchants of Cool." Even MTV, once synonymous with Gen X, holds little appeal for its original audience. Rather than growing up with that audience, MTV has endeavored - successfully so far - to remain forever young.

"Gen Xers are starting to leave their MTV programming behind," says Lee Doyle, managing partner with Mediaedge:cia Worldwide. "They will show up for big events like the video awards, but they don't relate much to the regular programming any more."

Favoring the youngest adults is nothing new, Doyle says, and is a strategy that his agency uses in selecting media for ads for AT&T Wireless, such as those featuring flash-cut editing of a young man trying on everything from spiky hair to a suit. "We talk a lot about the younger demographic, Generation Y, because they're the early adopters," says Doyle. "They're an early indicator of what will have mass appeal. By portraying a slightly younger group, you can often drag Generation X in because they don't want to be left behind."

Gen Y also may get more attention because advertisers believe it's still forming brand loyalties. MasterCard has an ad offering an internship to make a music video that targets 18- to 25-year-olds, driven by the notion that the first credit card a young person carries is the one he or she will use forever. Yet for products associated with a slightly older stage of life, such as furniture, diapers or minivans, brand loyalties come later - at the exact point where many Xers now find themselves. Manufacturers of those products may indeed want to reach Xers. The challenge for them is figuring out how.