Brain Gains, Brain Drains

American Demographics, June 1, 2004 by William H. Frey

Byline: WILLIAM H. FREY

As a nation, we are getting smarter. Nearly a quarter of American adults have a college education - a record high. As education remains a strong priority for parents and their children, it's also a No. 1 goal for governors and mayors who see attracting the best and the brightest to their states and cities as essential to enriching their tax bases and staying competitive. Fact is, competition among places for smart migrants - recent college grads, mid-career workers or retirees - creates winners and losers.

Recently released migration data from the 2000 census allows us to keep score. There are surprises. Some of the most cosmopolitan, gray matter-rich sections of the country appear to be losing their grip, even as many sun and fun areas are shedding the "dumb blonde" image. Another wild card is the flow of degreed immigrants from abroad. Brain drain areas lure them to try to offset the departure of homegrown talent; while on the urbanized coasts, highly educated immigrants are balancing out the influx of the lesser educated.

"BRIGHT FLIGHT" TO THE SUN BELT

A big-picture contrast between the old and emerging "smart belts" can be seen by comparing the state map of high concentrations of the college educated, with one of recent smart mover destinations. Elite coastal states still have the edge as bastions of the educated. In Massachusetts, the nation's college capital, 1 in every 3 adults has a bachelor's degree. The top tier of highly educated states extends from New England straight down the Bos.-Wash. megalopolis on the Atlantic coast; it includes California and Washington along the Pacific coast, and also two flyover havens, Colorado and Minnesota. Noticeably absent from this elite list are most of the states in the interior West and South.

This situation is about to flip. While it is no secret that the Sun Belt attracts migrants in droves, the new numbers show that college graduates are leading the way. The Sunshine state leads all others in attracting college grads, a net gain of 150,000 over the last half of the 1990s. It is followed by Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina - states generally known for their mild climates and outdoor recreation opportunities. The top tier of brain gaining states also includes Nevada and Oregon in the West (along with established brain gainers, California, Washington and Colorado) as well as Texas and Virginia in the South. Migration-driven "smart growth" in these states goes hand in hand with booming job markets that attract young professionals. Couples and parents are attracted to their newly minted family suburbs. Even the hip, so-called creative class single set may find enough cappuccino culture in Atlanta, Charlotte or Denver to consider adopting these places as home.

Migrants to the Sun Belt are coming from all over the country but "bright flight" mostly hits a handful of states in the Northeast and in the Rust Belt. New York lost nearly 190,000 degreed adults in the late 1990s. Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Iowa follow (along with Louisiana, a perennial Deep South out-migration state). Even sheepskin mecca, Massachusetts ranks among brain drain states. Diminishing economic prospects propels a lot of movement, but the Sun Belt's climate, opportunities and overall newness are important attractions.

METRO AREA BRAIN GAINS AND DRAINS

Atlanta drew the largest number of college graduates of all 48 major metropolitan areas in the country (see Table 1). The unofficial capital of the New South, it is one of the most degreed metros in the region (after Raleigh-Durham, N.C., Washington, D.C. and Austin, Texas), where nearly one-third of all adults are college graduates. Many of its in-migrants are African Americans, as Atlanta was the dominant destination for blacks in the 1990s.

And while one expects economically diverse areas like Dallas, San Francisco, Denver and Seattle to draw college graduates, virtual newcomer, Phoenix, ranks as the No. 2 brain gain metro. Retirees, now more educated than in the past, and the city's proximity to California's expanding suburbs contribute to Phoenix's gains. The high ranking of Las Vegas as a "brain gain magnet" may be even more startling to some, both because of its Sin City image, and the relative paucity of college graduates among its existing residents. (With only 1 in 6 holding a college degree, the Las Vegas metro area ranks last of all major metropolitan areas in educational attainment.) Yet, like Phoenix, Las Vegas is benefiting from California spillover, functioning as a virtual suburb of Los Angeles which is becoming increasingly unaffordable for many middle-income college graduates.

Brain gain destinations dot the interior West and Southeast. Florida and Texas each host three of the top 15 brain gainers, while there are two each in North Carolina, and five Western areas outside of California. In contrast, 12 of the 15 greatest losers of college degreed migrants are located in the Northeast and Midwest led by the New York metro region (see Table 1). Along with Chicago, Philadelphia and Boston, the list includes a string of old industrial metros including Pittsburgh, Detroit, Buffalo, Cleveland, St. Louis and Milwaukee; as well as Southern metros, New Orleans and Oklahoma City. Sprawling Los Angeles is also on the list as college graduate residents disperse to areas both within and outside of California.