The Shape of Things to Come

American Demographics, July 1, 2003 by Rebecca Gardyn

No single source quantifies what the industry invests in size and fit research, but industry analysts assert that there has been an increased focus on these issues over the past few years. Since the economy slumped, The NPD Group has noticed an increase in inquiries from companies about how size and fit affect shopping behavior, says Cohen. NPD research asserts that "good size and fit" is one of the top three factors influencing purchase decisions among clothing shoppers.

Mark Minsky, senior vice president of merchandising at The Doneger Group, an apparel industry consultancy in New York City, estimates that five years ago the industry spent about 30 percent of its time researching fit issues, and the other 70 percent on materials and other quality issues. "Today, I'd say it's more like 50-50," he says.

A GROWING CHALLENGE

Demographic and social trends exert an increasing influence on the industry's critical focus on fit. Poor eating habits, a lack of exercise and a lifestyle that favors inert behaviors of several kinds have contributed to the fact that Americans are getting bigger. Almost two out of every three adults today are overweight, reports the Center for Disease Control's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). That's 67 percent of men and 62 percent of women, compared with 53 percent of men and 42 percent of women in 1980. As 78 million Baby Boomers age, this phenomenon is likely to become more problematic, as we tend to pack on the pounds as we grow older.

Just look at the sales figures. The most oft-purchased size dress today is a size 14. In 1985, it was a size 8. Plus-size apparel was a $24 billion market in 1996. In 2000, it had grown to $32 billion, and by 2005, it is expected to reach $47 billion, according to estimates by Packaged Facts, a division of MarketResearch.com. The plus-size niche currently accounts for 20 percent of the total apparel market. And it's not just the women that are buying big: One of the fastest selling menswear products today is the expandable waist pant.

Adult consumers are not the only ones in search of larger, better fitting apparel. As many as 9 million children and teenagers, ages 6 to 19, are also overweight, triple the 1980 level. At 72 million strong, Generation Y's numbers rival the size of the Boomer population, so it would be prudent for apparel companies to watch their waistlines. Already, many department stores have added plus-Juniors sections. In 2001, Hot Topic, a retailer specializing in apparel and accessories for teens, based in City of Industry, Calif., launched Torrid, a chain of mall stores that carry plus-size clothing targeted at teen girls. Sydney's Closet, an online retailer of prom dresses in sizes 14 and larger, is another competitor in this arena.

DIVERSITY CHANGES PROPORTIONS

Diversity trends present an additional fitting challenge for apparel marketers. In 1980, 20 percent of Americans were of a race or ethnicity other than white, non-Hispanic. Today, that proportion has grown to 31 percent, and by 2025 it is expected to increase to almost 38 percent.