The Morning After

American Demographics, Nov 1, 2004

Byline: Alicia Mundy

The iconic cartoon of this presidential race may have been one from the Newark Star-Ledger, showing Vice President Cheney cuddling a drooling baby golden retriever with a loopy look on its face. Cheney's stern visage stared out, with the warning: "If you make the wrong choice in November, terrorists will attack this puppy."

That's been the war cry for the Bush reelection team. Bush-Cheney campaign squads portray Kerry as "weak on terrorism," and "Al-Qaeda's candidate."

But do Americans really believe that terrorists are more likely to hit us again if Kerry wins? And what do we think will happen to the country in the wake of either a Kerry or Bush victory? An exclusive poll for American Demographics conducted by Zogby International shortly before the election found surprising answers to these questions. Some 1,036 likely voters were surveyed, half of them Democrats and half Republicans.

Only GOP true believers buy the "fear factor" argument, with 1 in 2 respondents saying neither candidate is more likely to incite another terrorist strike. The rest split along party lines: 24 percent said that a Kerry win would lead to a new attack, and 22 percent said Bush's victory would.

What does this mean? According to several politicos interviewed, U.S. voters are aware that there are some things beyond America's control. "People see terrorism in sort of the same way they see the economy," says Tucker Carlson, Republican commentator and host of CNN's Crossfire. "It's a product of a bunch of larger forces. It's like the weather: Some may handle it better than others, but nobody controls it."

The Bush campaign's scare tactics have inherent limits."Fear plays to your die-hards," says analyst Steffen Schmidt, a professor at Iowa State University. "Independents are not driven by fear campaigns because they tend to be skeptics.

"This poll suggests that even many Republicans think they can't prevent another attack," says Schmidt, known as "Dr. Politics" on the airwaves in Iowa. "This weakens Bush's and Cheney's argument against Kerry."

This result is "good news for Democrats," says Michael Lind, a senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C. "I thought for a long time that the sense of imminent threat had passed," adds Lind, whose last book, Made in Texas (Basic Books, 2002) vilified George W. Bush. "People aren't that unnerved anymore about the possibility of another attack here; we are more immune to it. However, if the election had been held in 2003, Bush would have swept it."

Are Americans more afraid of a Bush or a Kerry win? Voters were virtually tied at 45 percent and 44 percent, respectively, and the subdivisions represent "the usual suspects," as Schmidt notes. A majority of self-identified investors, whites, Republicans, Protestants, born-again Christians, rural voters, Southerners, Midwesterners, and married voters were more frightened of Kerry. Poorer, East Coast, ethnic voters and Democrats fear Bush. Catholics were evenly uncertain.

However, African Americans are most worried about a Bush reelection by a huge margin: 80 percent. Fully 48 percent of black respondents said they thought that the worst thing that would happen if Bush were reelected would be more conflict in the Middle East. That was more than twice the number of whites or Hispanics.

"Here's how you connect the dots between those findings and what's in the news," says Arnie Arnesen, radio host and former Democratic candidate for governor of New Hampshire. Arnesen noted African American concerns about increased warfare reflected in a recent Wall Street Journal piece that said that the Army's ability to recruit black soldiers has "plummeted." Blacks accounted for 21 percent of all recruits in 2002, but are now only 15.6 percent. "African American voters see what is happening. There's no draft, and they're bearing a huge cost in personal terms of the war in Iraq," says Arnesen.

Professor Ron Walters of the University of Maryland agrees. The Zogby poll is "consistent with results of a Black Entertainment [BET] poll in late July, showing African Americans with about the same level of concern - around 70 percent." Walters, a noted African American scholar says, "The black community's attitude about a GOP president is off the charts.

"The African American community has always been suspicious of military engagements," says Walters. "They feel that they pay more personally in military wars in recent decades, and because the economic resources invested in wars take away from other needs.

"We are 25 percent of the military, and a high percentage of casualties in Iraq, for only being 13 percent of population. It's no wonder we're scared of another Bush term, and of continued conflict," he concludes. "We know who will do the fighting."

Who do Americans believe will pull us out of Iraq? Some 41 percent said they think that Kerry's first act as president will be to withdraw from Iraq, while 35 percent thought that Bush's first action will be to send more troops there. This may be a classic case of voters responding to "type," while ignoring candidates' actual words.