The minority majority in 2001

American Demographics, Oct, 1996 by Brad Edmondson

Non-Hispanic whites will become a minority of the U.S. population in about 60 years. But that future is already here in about 200 U.S. counties in the rural Sunbelt, big central cities, California, and Texas. In these places, the minority isn't as foreign as you might think.

In less than one lifespan, Americans who belong to racial and ethnic minority groups will outnumber non-Hispanic whites. Blacks, Asians, Native Americans, and Hispanics will attain the U.S. majority shortly after the year 2050, according to Census Bureau projections. They are already a majority in New Mexico, Hawaii, and many large cities. These minority strongholds are the vanguard of a demographic shift that will transform politics and business over the next 50 years.

This map shows the proportion of non-Hispanic whites for each U.S. county in the first year of the 21st century. The minority majority will exist in 226 U.S. counties in 2001, up from 186 counties in 1990, according to Equifax National Decision Systems in San Diego. California will reach a statewide minority majority in 2000 and Texas will by 2010. The driving force in both states immigration to urban areas. For example the nomination of middle-class (1) Orange County, CA, should increase from 1.9 million in 1980 to 2.8 million in 2001, but the non-Hispanic white population will remain at about 1.4 million. Only 51 percent of residents will be non-Hispanic white in 2001, compared with 72 percent in 1980.

Counties that are approaching a minority majority fall into three types. Some are the most populated places in America, such as central (2) Chicago, IL (Cook County, pop.5.1 million in 2001,49 percent non-Hispanic white); (3) Dallas County, TX (2.1 million, 50 percent); and downtown (4) Detroit, MI (Wayne County, 2 million, 52 percent). These urban cores also tend to be racially diverse. In some big cities, such as (5) Queens County, NY (2 million), the population is 38 percent Anglo, with the rest equally divided between African, Hispanic, and Asian Americans.

Some smaller cities in the South and West are also approaching a minority majority, but their population is not as diverse. In (6) Albany,GA (Dougherty County, 2001 pop. 101,000), almost everyone will be black (49 percent) or white (49 percent). In the (7) Corpus Christi, TX metro area (San Patricio County, 70,000), 53 percent will be Hispanic and 45 percent Anglo. And sometimes the minority majority is in rural areas that have held a racial balance for generations. The original European and African settlers of (8) Dillon County, SC (30,500, 50 percent Anglo) arrived about 300 years ago.

Counties that are completely dominated by Anglos tend to be northern and rural. The two whitest places in America are (9) Robertson County, KY (2001 pop.2,317), with a projected minority population of 4, and (10) McPherson County, NE (558), where demographers estimate that there is 1 lonely minority resident. The hills and hollows of Robertson are the cradle of bluegrass, the true white soul music. The prairies of McPherson were settled 100 years ago by German families that apparently still have the place to themselves.

There will also be 38 counties where fewer than one in five residents is non-Hispanic white. Sixteen are in south Texas, including (11) El Paso County (2001 pop. 776,000, 16 percent white) and the counties that contain Laredo and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission. Twenty are enclaves of rural poverty, and one is (12) Bronx County, NY (1.2 million, 16 percent). The exception is (13) Miami (Dade County, FL, 2.2 million), where demographic change in the 1990s has been like a hurricane. Non-Hispanic whites will decline from 30 percent of Miami residents in 1990 to a projected 14.5 percent in 2001. In other words, Miami should see an absolute decline of 268,000 Anglo residents in this decade, while its total population increases by 254,000. "Your mother doesn't live here anymore," says Robert Joffee, a Miami-based pollster and political analyst. "The working-class Jewish people who came to Miami decades ago have either died or moved north." Meanwhile, Anglo baby boomers avoid Miami's crime and county-wide public-school problems.

But Miami is different. "Lots of people here are Hispanic in name only," says Joffee." The younger ones were born here. They don't even speak Spanish." It's the story of America, where every family started out in the minority.