A new generation at college - projections of college enrollment in the future

American Demographics, Oct, 1997 by Shannon Dortch

Booms in college enrollment in the next decade are likely to happen in states with growing numbers of young adults, according to our projections of students by' state.

It's hard to predict the future without bowing to the overwhelming effect of the baby-boom generation on virtually every consumer market. Yet there's one market where the influence of these 77 million Americans is waning--and fast. The future of college enrollment lies with a younger generation. We may not be able to say with confidence how young adults will dress, and what fast food they will buy in 2007. But it's pretty certain they'll buy a college education.

The nation's largest states dominate the forecast for sheer numbers of college enrollees in 2007. California tops our list, with a projected 2.2 million students aged 18 and older enrolled that year. Texas, New York, and Florida are next, with 1.3 million, 1 million, and 886,000, respectively.

California, Texas, and Florida are all expected to have these large numbers of enrollees because of their large populations. Yet they also get a boost from population growth, particularly for people aged 18 to 24. All 3 are in the top-20 states for growth in college enrollment between 1997 and 2007. Florida ranks 6th (21 percent), Texas ranks 8th (20 percent), and California is 12th (16 percent).

New York's size and the fact that it is home to many young international migrants may keep its number of college enrollees high. But New York and Massachusetts are the only two states in the union where we expect no growth in college enrollment. Connecticut and the District of Columbia could see declines of 2 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

The states that may be building more college classrooms in the next decade are those where the population aged 18 to 24 is expected to grow rapidly. That's largely because adults this age have significantly higher college enrollment rates than older Americans for both full-time and part-time study. In 1995, 33 percent of 18-to-24-year-old men were full-time college students, compared with 7 percent of all men. About 36 percent of women that age studied full-time, compared with 8 percent of all U.S. women.

Eighteen of the top-20 states for projected growth in college enrollment are also in the top-20 for growth in enrollment by 18-to-24-year-olds. The presence of these states on both lists reflects two population trends: domestic migration to Mountain and Pacific states, and high birth rates among international migrants and Mormon residents of Utah. That state ranks highest for growth in both full- and part-time enrollment.

Full-time enrollment in Utah may increase 50 percent between 1997 and 2007, to 118,500. Part-time enrollment could increase 26 percent, to 45,000. These growth rates are well above the U.S. averages of 15 percent for full-time and 5 percent for part-time enrollment. However, the overall number of enrollees in Utah is small relative to those in other fast-growth states, such as California, Florida, and Texas.

Not every state expected to have rapid growth in college enrollment is located in the Rockies or along the Pacific Coast. The Midwest also makes a decent showing, with four states in the top-20 for growth in full-time enrollment between 1997 and 2007: Missouri, Kansas, Minnesota, and Nebraska.

A few states may see fast growth in both full- and part-time enrollment, with Utah, Nevada, and Arizona among the leaders for both. However, important differences in the reasons why people choose one type of study over another may contribute to differences in both projected rates of growth and which states see rapid increases in numbers of part-time students.

Part-time enrollment typically increases during times of economic recession, when unemployment rates are high. When good jobs are scarce, many Americans opt for college as a way to improve their odds of landing a good job when market conditions improve. These projections reflect trends in enrollment rates between 1987 and 1995, a period during which the U.S. experienced a recession. That's one reason why growth in part-time college enrollment in the U.S. is projected at about 5 percent over the ten-year period, to 5.2 million in 2007.

If the U.S. economy continues to be robust for the next decade, enrollment in many states may be lower than projected here, as would-be students opt for earning instead of learning. Conversely, another recession might boost part-time enrollment.

There's another important unknown where part-time enrollment is concerned: Will enrollment rates among older adults continue to grow? During the 1980s and 1990s, when the nation experienced declines in the number of "traditional" college students, many colleges maintained enrollment by targeting older students. These adults may have sought the college degree they never earned as young adults, or supplemented a bachelor's with graduate work.

However, rising college enrollment rates among 18-to-24-year-olds suggests that more Americans are getting a college degree while they are in their 20s. The pool of Americans over age 25 without a degree may be shrinking. Institutions who count on older students may have to beef up graduate programs to woo people for advanced degrees.