Bye-bye to Bay and Bronx - net migration loss projected for California and New York State

American Demographics, Oct, 1997 by Matthew Klein

Nearly 3.5 million more people may move out of California than may move in between 1995 and 2005. That makes California the number-one state people will try to get away from during that decade. New York may come n second, potentially losing about 2 million in the same period. Since these are populous states, they naturally have large pools of potential movers. Yet when net domestic outmigration is figured as a percent of the total state population, they still top the list of losers.

The net migration loss for the Golden and Empire States between 1995 and 2005 may be equivalent to 11 percent of their 1995 populations. To get an idea of the magnitude of this, imagine California and New York as they would be if births and immigration weren't taking up the slack--completely uninhabited by 2087.

No other states are expected to see such a profound exodus, either in absolute numbers or as a percent of state population. The next three states for absolute loss--Illinois, Michigan, and New Jersey--may have 602,000, 380,000, and 294,000 more outmigrants than inmigrants, respectively. But the three together will have only 61 percent of the net outmigration of New York alone.

The states that are projected to have the greatest net outmigration as a percent of population are Connecticut, Illinois, and Rhode Island, at third, fourth, and fifth, respectively. The equivalent of 6 percent of Connecticut's 1995 population is expected to be lost to a net outmigration between 1995 and 2005; its two New England neighbors are each projected to lose the equivalent of 5 percent.

For more information, see Population Projections: States, 1995-2025 (P25-1131), available by calling the Census Bureau's statistical information staff at (301) 457-2422, or from the bureau's Web site at http://www.census.gov/population/www/projections/stproj. html.

demo memo

(percent of U.S. adults who drank cappuccino in the past week, by age, 1997)

18 to 19      11%
30 to 44       8
45 to 59       9
60 and older   3

Source: Roper Starch Worldwide