What if…? What if some of the trends touted in the media came true during the next few decades? Here's American Demographics' contribution to millennial hype

American Demographics, Dec, 1997 by Diane Crispell, Shannon Dortch, Brad Edmondson, Nancy Ten Kate, Matthew Klein, Matthew Cravatta

Evidence suggests that Americans with modest savings will live OK in retirement, albeit at a reduced level. If they want to maintain their current standard of living, however, they'll have to be a little more creative. Only 14 percent of boomers surveyed by Merrill Lynch in 1996 plan to use the equity in their homes, but they have plenty of time to change their minds. Elderly boomers could also just keep spending until they're broke, then cast themselves on the mercy of others. Provisions of adequate food, housing, and medical care for these nouveau indigent would fall to taxpayers.

Here's another novel idea. Young and middle-aged adults could reduce their living standards now and put more away for retirement. This might mean fewer big-screen TVs and sport-utility vehicles now, but more motor-coach tours and golf clubs later.

America were really aging? "By the year 2020, the old will control America and youth will be at their mercy." --Ken Dychtwald, popular speaker on aging and business.

Holy Metamucil, Batman! Is America doomed to a future of menopause and mall-walking? We don't think so. While "the aging of America" is real, it won't be as scary or dramatic as Dychtwald suggests. In 1980, the median age of the United States was 30. Today, it is 35. Shortly after 2020, according to Census Bureau projections, it will stabilize at 38.

The U.S. has been gradually aging for more than a hundred years because of advances in life expectancy. The process is in the midst of a temporary acceleration, thanks to the baby boom. This will culminate around 2030, when the youngest boomers will be in their late 60s.

But America is more than just baby boomers. And older adults may have more power in 2020 than they do today, but they already have the bulk of it. Take property ownership: in 1996, 34 percent of homeowners were aged 55 and older, and another 18 percent were aged 45 to 54. Or government support: Medicare and Social Security claimed 33 percent of all federal outlays in 1996. How about political leadership? Most members of the House of Representatives are over age 50; in the U.S. Senate, 41 are aged 50 to 59 and 44 are aged 60 and older. In universities, 44 percent of instructional faculty and staff are aged 50 and older. Aging baby boomers will add a few percentage points to these figures, but they won't dramatically shift the balance of power.

If the old control America, will youth be at their mercy? As the kids would say: "You wish." The number of 18-to-24-year-olds is projected to increase from 25 million today to 30 million in 2020. At the same time, the annual number of births is projected to increase from about 3.9 million to 4.6 million, as a steady stream of immigrants comes to the U.S. and start families.

One-third of current population growth comes from immigration. If we shut off the immigration tap, as some recommend, America would age much more rapidly. Demographically speaking, the U.S. is beginning to resemble West Germany, Japan, and other highly developed countries. Our native-born population is aging rapidly because of low fertility, and we are relying more on immigrants to do the tasks of youth. It's not really an age wave. It's more like ebb tide for Anglos.