What if…? What if some of the trends touted in the media came true during the next few decades? Here's American Demographics' contribution to millennial hype

American Demographics, Dec, 1997 by Diane Crispell, Shannon Dortch, Brad Edmondson, Nancy Ten Kate, Matthew Klein, Matthew Cravatta

whites become a minority? "A half century from now, when your own grandchildren are in college, there will be no majority race in America." --President Clinton (1997 commencement speech at the University of California at San Diego) Close, but no cigar. Although technically wrong, the President was on the right track. In 2050, three in four Americans will belong to the white race, but many will be Hispanics, who are currently viewed as minorities. Non-Hispanic whites will still be a majority of the population, but barely, at 53 percent, according to the Census Bureau's middle-series projections.

Shortly after 2050, non-Hispanic whites may become a true minority. Hispanics are poised to overtake blacks as the largest minority group. Asians and Pacific Islanders could almost double their numbers by 2020. And interracial marriages will add children to the population who cannot be easily labeled using current categories.

Non-Hispanic whites are already a minority in central cities of large metropolitan areas. Hawaii has always had a minority majority, and New Mexico attained the distinction in 1990. Large numbers of immigrants will add California and Texas to the list by 2000 and 2010, respectively. The under-18 population will attain a minority majority long before the general population.

These changes will take place at this pace only if immigration continues at its present rate and in its present form (from Asia and Latin America), and if total fertility rates of nonwhites remain higher than for whites. Neither trend is certain, but it would take substantial changes in both to push back the timeline on a "minority majority."

The question isn't really whether non-Hispanic whites become a minority; it's a question of when. The even bigger question is: "So what?" For one thing, the 21st century may find young minorities working to support an older and whiter population. This could spur increased racial/ethnic tension across generational lines. Eventually, however, so-called Anglos will no longer dominate older age groups or control the government and economy. At that point, it's possible that divisions between haves and have-nots will be drawn less along white/nonwhite lines. (This doesn't mean they won't be drawn along other ones.) Transitions in the balance of power will occur gradually, however, and are already well underway. When we actually reach the day of a minority majority, nothing much will change.

Only a few decades ago, many non-Hispanic whites were considered minorities because they were recent non-English speaking immigrants who received less-than-equal social and economic treatment--Jews, Italians, Irish, and Poles. The "majority minority" of the future will not suffer from such newcomer disadvantages, but they may be put in their place to some extent. In the international scheme of things, non-Hispanic whites are a pretty small minority. The U.S. of the 21st century will merely be closer to reflecting this global reality.

JUVENILE CRIME EXPloDEs? "Unless we act today, we're going to have a bloodbath when these kids grow up." --James Alan Fox (news conference at American Association for Advancement of Sciences, February 1995) Experts thought crime would drop when the teenage population hit a slump in the 1980s. It didn't. Now that the teen population's on the rise, media reports of "super predators" are fueling fears that the next decade will be even worse.