What if…? What if some of the trends touted in the media came true during the next few decades? Here's American Demographics' contribution to millennial hype

American Demographics, Dec, 1997 by Diane Crispell, Shannon Dortch, Brad Edmondson, Nancy Ten Kate, Matthew Klein, Matthew Cravatta

Some Americans in gang-war-torn neighborhoods already live with criminologist Fox's grim bloodbath scenario. Between 1985 and 1995, the rate at which teens aged 14 to 17 murdered people rose 165 percent. If this trend continues, "the number will double by the year 2010," according to The New York Times. This is not media hype; it is a straightforward projection from the Department of Justice.

Drugs get most of the blame for rising crime and arrest rates among America's youth. Drugs, gangs, and guns go together. Ninety percent of juvenile homicides are committed with handguns. Childhood abuse and neglect also play a big role. Ninety percent of girls with a criminal record in Connecticut have a history of physical or sexual abuse, according to the state's justice department.

There is much debate about how to treat youth offenders. Is incarceration the answer? One study estimates that society more than benefits in dollar terms from incarcerating violent criminals who commit murder, assault, and robbery. It's less clear that we see a net gain from locking up cat burglars, though, and the analysis doesn't estimate the cost benefit of locking up drug offenders.

Even criminologist Fox isn't convinced that the Justice Department's dire prediction will come true, however. "It would be hard to keep on going straight up," he told The New York Times. Let's hope he's right. The number of federal and state prisoners (of all ages) grew 107 percent between 1986 and 1995, while the total population grew 9 percent. If the prison population continues to grow at the same average annual pace, one in four Americans will be living behind bars by 2050. And that doesn't count those living behind bars in their own homes for fear of the "super predators." --Diane Crispell

everyone was wired? "As the Internet becomes our new town square, a computer in every home--a teacher of all subjects, a connection to all cultures--will no longer be a dream, but a necessity. And over the next decade, that must be our goal." --President Clinton (1997 State of the Union address) In his dream of an information nation, President Clinton hopes the Internet will change the American public. It will. But the public may change the Internet more.

Clinton's statement implies a vast electronic library and communications network hooked to a computer, which is how the Internet looks today. But to become a universal fixture in American homes, it needs to be both more and less. A fair share (41 percent) of the vast number of Americans without an Internet connection don't see a need for one, according to FIND/SVP's 1997 American Internet User Survey. That translates into 66 million Mohammeds who don't want to go to the mountain.

One chunk of the mountain, in the form of Bill Gates, is heading toward reluctant Mohammeds in two ways. Both take advantage of relationships Americans already have with home electronics. On the high end, full-strength PCs are designed to be the heart of the home-entertainment system, controlling televisions and stereos, and adding e-mail and browsing capabilities to the mix. For those without the means or desire to own a PC, Gates suggests a TV-set-top box connected to the Internet.