This is a test: ten predictions made a decade ago are put to the test, revealing the power of demographics to anticipate trends - baby boomers are expected to make changes in the United States as they age

American Demographics, Jan, 1998 by Cheryl Russell

Ten predictions made a decade ago are put to the test, revealing the power of demographics to anticipate trends.

"The baby boom's middle age will transform the United States in three important ways: It will make the country more conservative; it will make the home the focus of American life; and it will make the nation richer." Those words were written a little more than ten years ago in my book, 100 Predictions for the Baby Boom.

True to its name, the book made 100 predictions about what was in store for the most influential generation in American history--and for the nation. The predictions were based on the aging of the baby boom from 1985 (when boomers were mostly young adults aged 21 to 39) to 1995 (when boomers were aged 31 to 49). The number of predictions that came true during that decade shows the power of demographics to reveal the future.

It was not possible to test all the predictions, since many look decades into the future--one even predicts the number of boomers who will live to age 100 (1 million). Another predicts the year in which the last boomer will die (2069). But several predictions were specific to the 1990s. Here is how they panned out:

Two-thirds of baby-boom households will be married couples by 1995: The results are in and, as of 1995, married couples accounted for 60 percent of households headed by 30-to-49-year-olds. This is a little lower than the two-thirds predicted, but it's in the ballpark.

The 60 percent figure is slightly less than predicted because boomers have postponed marriage and, once married, have been quick to divorce. The percentage of women aged 35 to 39 who have never married rose from 8 percent to 13 percent between 1985 and 1995. The share of 35-to-39-year-olds who are currently divorced stood at 14 percent in 1995, peaking at 16 percent among women aged 45 to 54.

By 1995, most baby-boom women will be sterile: Recently released results from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth reveal the striking accuracy of this prediction. As of 1995, 57 percent of baby-boom women could no longer have children. Forty-five percent had been surgically sterilized, while another 12 percent could not have children because of "impaired fecundity," defined as an inability to become pregnant after 12 months of unprotected sexual intercourse. These numbers will only grow in the future as more boomers reach menopause.

Eighty percent of baby-boom women will be working by 1995: As of 1995, 77 percent of women aged 30 to 49 were in the labor force, slightly below the predicted rate--but close enough to call a success. The rate at which boomer women increased their participation in the work force slowed in the early 1990s because of the recession and because so many had young children at home. Yet the rate shows no sign of reversing, or even stabilizing, in the near future. Boomer women who have invested money and time in educations and careers are unlikely to quit their jobs in middle age. As they age, work could become even more important.

Working women will earn 74 percent of what working men earn by 2000: This prediction is proving conservative. In 1996, the median annual earnings of women who worked full-time, year-round were already 74 percent of men's, up from 65 percent in 1985, according to the Census Bureau. This figure is likely to rise a few more percentage points by 2000.

By 1995, one in four baby-boom households will make more than $50,000 a year (in 1985 dollars): The sum of $50,000 in 1985 is now worth about $70,000 once inflation is factored in. Among the 44.5 million householders aged 30 to 49 in 1995, the proportion with incomes of $70,000 or more stood at 22 percent, pretty close to the 25 percent predicted. The proportion of baby-boom householders with incomes of $70,000 or more ranges from 15 percent among those aged 30 to 34 to 31 percent among those aged 45 to 49, according to Census Bureau data.

The baby boom will keep the stock market volatile for the rest of this century: This prediction, made before the 1987 stock market crash, hit the nail on the head. The 1987 crash was the largest one-day percentage decline in the market's history. Record-setting ups and downs have now become almost common. And just a couple months ago, the market saw its largest-ever one-day point gain. Party to these ups and downs is the baby-boom generation. The 35-to-44 age group held 41 percent of its financial assets in stock in 1995, according to the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances. This is up from 26 percent in 1989. The percentage of householders aged 35 to 44 who own stock grew from 41 percent to 47 percent during those years.

By the year 2000, three out of four baby boomers will own a home: This prediction is well on its way to coming true. The housing market is booming, and boomers who have long been priced out of the market are diving in. The homeownership rate in the United States reached a record high in 1997, thanks to boomer buyers. The proportion of boomers who own homes ranged from 53 percent among 30-to-34-year-olds to 74 percent among 45-to-49-year-olds, according to the Census Bureau. As more boomers enter their prosperous 40s and 50s, the generation's overall homeownership rate should rise.