2000 Ad

American Demographics, Feb, 1997 by Brad Edmonson

You can describe the job with just two words and a number: count 274,000,000 people. That is the estimated population of the U.S. on April 1, 2000. The Census Bureau's job, as set down in the U.S. Constitution, is to determine the exact number by physically verifying the existence of every American. This is clearly impossible, but the bureau makes a heroic effort every ten years to reach the goal.

Census enumerators have swum icy rivers and ridden dogsleds and helicopters to find people. They have interviewed nudists and delivered babies. They have been attacked by dogs, criminals, and the mentally ill. On the night of March 20, 1990, they even attempted to count every homeless person in America. Thousands of paid federal employees moved through homeless shelters, cheap hotels, all-night restaurants, bus stations, and as the night wore on, urban streets all over the country. Their efforts added 240,140 people to the official count.

The 1990 census was the largest mobilization of government workers outside of wartime. Yet follow-up research indicated that it wasn't as complete as the 1980 count. It missed 4.5 million people, or 1.8 percent of the population, compared with 1.2 percent in 1980.

The reason was that America had changed. Middle-class neighborhoods were likely to be unpopulated during the day, as millions of former homemakers had become working women. City neighborhoods had been transformed by waves of immigrants from places like Vietnam and Mexico, where the language spoken isn't English and government workers are not to be trusted. Mailboxes all over the country were stuffed with direct-mail offers, so the humble census form was more likely to be lost or ignored.

Given these challenges, the 1990 census did remarkably well. But Congressional leaders didn't see it that way. They sent the bureau back to the drawing boards, with orders to find a cheaper, better way to count people. A year ago, the bureau responded with its plan for the 2000 census. It should be cheaper, with an estimated total cost of about S4 billion. (If it was conducted just like the 1990 census, it would cost S4.8 billion.) It could also be much better, because all Americans will be accounted for. It would accomplish these feats by combining a traditional headcount with surveys that will estimate people who are hardest to reach. This spring, Congress decides whether to go with the plan.

The high priests of American data-gathering like the plan, for the most part. People who use census data also like the plan, because it promises them detailed data faster and in user-friendly form. But others are hostile, because the plan is not a simple headcount. And when the story moves from the realm of statistics to the realm of politics, things get really complicated.

Some Republicans are afraid that a survey-enhanced census could boost the count in low-income neighborhoods that tend to vote Democratic. Some minority groups don't like the idea that low-income blacks and other hard-to-count people might never get the chance to fill out a census form. And data purists are already armed with the Constitution, ready to argue in court that the census must be a headcount to the last American, nothing more or less.

The next few months are crunch time for Census Bureau director Martha Riche and her staff. If their plan is approved and fully funded, the result could be a breakthrough census. If Congress balks or pinches pennies, however -- and that is a real possibility -- crucial deadlines will be missed and the plan may fall apart. "This Congress will decide the fate of the 2000 census," says David McMillen, a professional staffer on the House committee that deals with census issues. "After that, it will be too late."

THE HEADCOUNT

It all started in 1789, with Article I, Section 2, Subsection 3 of the U.S. Constitution, which states: "Representatives and direct taxes shall be apportioned among the several states which may be included within this Union, according to their respective numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole number of free persons, including those bound to service for a term of years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three-fifths of all other persons. The actual enumeration shall be made within three years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent term of ten years, in such manner as they shall by law direct."

More than two centuries later, the Census Bureau treats all Indians as citizens and doesn't ask questions about indentured servants or slaves. But Congressional district, are still apportioned according to the decennial count. The phrase "actual enumeration" still applies. And Congress still directs, by law, the manner in which the census is taken.

The plan for 2000 tries to make sure that the greatest number of Americans are counted in the cheapest, most accurate way, by filling out census forms themselves. "We're offering an unprecedented array of opportunities for people to respond to the census on their terms and at their convenience," says director Riche. "We have simplified the form enormously, and are telling people in plain terms the benefits they get from doing it themselves. Then were planning seven different types of contact before we go door-to-door: four separate mailings, targeted national advertising of a toll-free number to call, extra forms in public places where local partners tell us people will find them, and follow-up by phone for those whose numbers we can get."