How to think about the future - scenario forecasting - includes related article

American Demographics, Feb, 1998 by Dan Fost, Brad Edmonston

WILD CARDS

"What if" is the name of the game in a spin-off of scenario forecasting known as "wild cards." "These are things that are really big surprises, that come out of left field" Schwartz says. Recent examples include AIDS, earthquakes, the sudden rise of the World Wide Web, assassinations, and the cloning of animals.

To the uninitiated, wild cards can sound far-fetched or even silly. John Petersen's latest book, Out of the Blue, lists a few: Hackers blackmail the Federal Reserve; civil war between Soviet states goes nuclear; travel becomes possible at a speed faster than light; a new Chernobyl; a world-wide food shortage; an asteroid strikes Earth.

"People just presume that surprises are surprises and that, by definition, there isn't anything you can do about them" Petersen says. "But it seems to me that surprises play an integral part of the equation about the future. They are inevitable. You just don't know which ones they're going to be"

In looking at wild cards, you can "decide which ones are important to you" says Petersen. "You don't have to look at all of them. Narrow the list down to half a dozen. Then ask: Can I anticipate any of these? Are there early indicators? Trip wires? In almost every case, there are ways you can anticipate these." The next question, he says, is "How can I derail them? How can I mitigate against them?"

To think about wild cards, the practitioner must suspend disbelief. "You've got to get out of the box" Petersen says. If cynicism leads to a contemptuous dismissal of the concept, "you've just made the cardinal mistake" Petersen says. "Go drink beer and watch TV."

The other crucial pitfall, in Schwartz's estimation, comes when companies don't show a willingness to think differently, and instead want a guru to paint a picture of their future. "That's absolutely common" Schwartz says. "If they want a simple answer of what will happen, and believe they can get it, we don't want to work with them. A great majority of companies follow a relatively simpler model. They get it wrong, and they fail." Scenario planning, if done right, might help your business beat those odds.

TAKING IT FURTHER

For more information, see The Art of the Long View by Peter, Schwartz (Currency Doubleday, 1991: $15); and Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises by John Petersen (Arlington Institute Press, 1997: $17, available by calling 703-243-7070). The Global Business Network offers explanations of scenario-based planning on its Web site, at http://www.gbn.org; or telephone (510) 547-6822. Gemini Consulting can be reached at (973) 285-9009.

RELATED ARTICLE: Dealing with Wild Cards

Wild Cards are major surprises that come out of the blue and change everything. You usually can't see them until they are almost upon you. But you can plan for wild cards, and it vastly increases your chances of surviving and benefiting from them if you do, according to John L. Peterson, a futurist and business consultant in Arlington, Virginia. The chart on the facing page shows how Peterson advises clients to think about wild cards, such as a stock market crash or a major breakthrough in the development of cheap, clean energy. He rates each Wild Card according to these seven factors: