Scouting for souls

American Demographics, March, 1996 by Marc Spiegler

When Pastor Thomas Wolf first came to Southern California's Church on Brady in 1969, the situation seemed dire. The Southern Baptist church in East Los Angeles had seen its historically Anglo following erode to 45 people as the neighborhood became mostly Mexican. Facing fiscal problems and demographic change, church elders even considered selling off the dilapidated property. Today, after more than a quarter century of Wolf's leadership, the Church on Brady boasts services averaging 700 worshippers, drawn from an ethnic mix as diverse as East L.A. itself.

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The Church on Brady posed a perfect challenge for Wolf, the first American to receive a diploma from the programs established by Donald McGavran, founder of the international "Church Growth" movement. McGavran's philosophy holds that increasing the size of a church is a legitimate theological aim, not just a natural byproduct of righteousness. To achieve that goal, pastors such as Wolf employ a well-developed array of methods rooted not only in scripture, but also in commercial marketing. Terms like "market segment," "niche," and "satisfied customer" trip easily off their tongues.

Such a bottom-line approach is not surprising when one considers Americans' lukewarm attitude toward religion. Only 35 percent of Americans could be classified as "religious" in 1995, according to surveys of religious attitudes and church attendance conducted by the Gallup Organization. In their attempts to reach the other two-thirds, many churches have turned to demographic and other information to draw new followers and keep denominations healthy.

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FINDING NEW SOULS

When Wolf started rebuilding the Church on Brady in 1969, demographic information was hard to come by. He recalls how, with great difficulty, he managed to dig up a meager amount of data from the city council, county, and public schools. But he still ended up conducting lots of common-sense "windshield studies"--getting in his car and driving around neighborhoods, observing who was moving in, which businesses were going under, and other signs of change.

Today, with data available down to the census-tract level on CD-ROMs, Wolf relies much more on hard numbers. "When we plan to do a limited mailing--let's say 5,000 flyers--we'll study census-tract data to figure out where to send them, not just blanket a whole neighborhood."

Before targeting potential followers, a denomination must decide that a particular area seems ripe for a new church. The strongest indicators are expanding communities and high birth rates, says Steve Whitten of the Southern Baptists' Convention Home Mission Board, which constantly consults with local members on the issue. From the Church of the Nazarene's central research division in Kansas City, Rich Housel echoes Whitten: "We try to identify places that seem like they have good potential, and encourage people to start the churches. Our best indicators are new homes--because churches really seem linked to the life cycle of the community--and new families. Many people who stop going to church in college come back once they have children. They're concerned about teaching their children right from wrong."

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints makes intensive use of demographic data to locate new opportunities. The church conducts regular surveys worldwide, and each local unit--or "ward"--also reports member data to world headquarters in Salt Lake City, Utah. "We look at household composition and factors like fertility--age at birth of first child, number of kids--and at `marriage markets.' In a lot of areas, we have more women than men, which has obvious implications for growth," says senior research analyst Kristen Goodman.

Methodist strategic planner Jack Heacock considers demographic research an essential part of his success. "In the past, a lot of Methodist pastors were trying to be like the Sears Roebuck catalog, all things to all people. But in the greatest mail-order period in history, that catalog went out of business," he says. "In targeting a church's efforts, you have to get very clear on who you want to try to reach. I always start with a demographic analysis, and try to help churches target the largest market segment that other churches are not reaching."

Percept Group, a consulting firm in Costa Mesa, California, works almost exclusively with religious groups. It offers churches analyses that compare the community within a 5-mile radius of a site against national profiles. Drawing on both census data and its own research, Percept draws a detailed picture of the prospective congregation. An analysis of Colorado Springs, Colorado, for instance, reveals a slew of insights on which a new church could act, including a relatively high rate of changing religious preferences, widespread concern about neighborhood gangs, distaste for face-to-face evangelism, demand for intellectual challenge within the church context, and a strong tendency toward "contemporary" worship styles and modern music.