The future of baseball

American Demographics, April, 1996 by Shannon Dortch

Major League Baseball's labor dispute has hurt the game in more ways than one, according to this exclusive analysis. High ticket prices and a bitter strike have left many Americans disgusted with baseball. New stadiums and winning teams still boost attendance, but young people are losing interest. Baseball needs a strong boss and a new star, or it will soon become America's ex-national pastime.

Few things are more difficult than hitting a major-league fast ball with a thin stick. Attracting fans back to ballparks may be one of them. After 160 years on top of the sports world, baseball is in danger of becoming America's ex-national pastime.

The bitter strike by major-league baseball players in 1994 and 1995 dealt the game a terrible blow. But the strike only confirmed what baseball fans already knew. Each new season sees the game's best players competing for the title of highest-paid athlete. Team owners threaten to abandon urban areas that have supported them for 100 years, while they pocket billions in broadcast revenue. When the last independent commissioner of baseball was fired in September 1992, the tradition of following an authority who looked after "the best interests of baseball" ended. Meanwhile, the cost of a day at the ballpark is high, making it more difficult for Americans of moderate incomes to enjoy big-league play.

Baseball's owners and players now see their fans--their customers--as a minor concern, a little piece of the business best handled by Ticketmaster. In business jargon, baseball owners and players have opted for short-term profits at the expense of long-term brand equity.

Some teams now see attracting fans to their ballparks as a second-place priority. Television revenue is so lucrative in the biggest markets that it supplants ticket sales as the largest share of a team's revenue, says Susan Hofacre, head of the Sports Administration Department at Robert Morris College in Pittsburgh. Yet most major-league teams play in smaller metros, where fans in the stands are the bulk of their revenue.

Statistics show that the eight-month strike dug a divide between major-league baseball and its customers. In 1995, attendance at major-league ballparks declined 26 percent from 1993, even when adjusted for the 23 dates canceled due to the strike. In unadjusted numbers, fewer than 52 million people went to big-league games in 1995, compared with more than 70 million in 1993. Americans also tuned out of baseball in their own homes. The share of adults who watch baseball on television declined 9 percentage points from 1993, the last full season before the strike, to 22 percent last year.

When the strike ended in April 1995, fans had mixed feelings. Fifty-eight percent of baseball fans said they felt disgusted, and about the same share felt relieved. Thirty-eight percent said they felt angry, according to a Gallup Poll conducted for USA Today and CNN. Almost seven in ten fans said they were less interested in major-league baseball than they had been at the start of the 1994 season.

Despite fans' cynicism, baseball may still pack more emotional power for Americans than any other major sport. Twelve percent of adults in 1995 said they attended any type of baseball game, according to Mediamark Research. The share who attend football games was 9 percent, compared with 8 percent for basketball and 4 percent for hockey.

When it comes to avidly following a sport as a spectator, football clobbers baseball. Thirty-six percent of adults say they are very interested in professional football, compared with 25 percent for baseball, according to Roper Starch Worldwide of New York City. The shares for professional basketball and hockey are 22 percent and 8 percent, respectively. But baseball closes the gap on football when moderately interested fans are also counted, at 58 percent for football and 57 percent for baseball.

It's not too late for baseball to restore its image. But if owners and players don't move fast to increase their customers' satisfaction and loyalty, they will lose their most precious asset--along with a lot of money.

A RICH FAN'S GAME

A big reason for baseball's troubles is that it simply costs too much. Four decades ago, Chicago White Sox owner Bill Veeck said "a baseball crowd is a beer-drinking crowd, not a niixed-drink crowd." Veeck never saw the cappucccino and cheesecake stands at Oriole Park. Today, baseball is a sport for the well-off. The likelihood of attending a baseball game increases steadily with household income. Twenty-one percent of adults with household incomes of $75,000 or more attend baseball games, making them 72 percent more likely than average to do so.

Other major sports also have an upscale audience. Football, basketball, and hockey all have above-average attendance rates among those with household incomes of $40,000 or more. People with incomes below $30,000 generally have an average or below-average likelihood of attending baseball, football, and basketball games. People with incomes of 30,000 to $40,000 have an average likelihood of attending baseball games, at 12 percent, but they are less likely to attend football games.