The facts of death - statistics, demographics

American Demographics, April, 1997 by Brad Edmondson

Americans now take for granted that they will live to a ripe old age. Medicine's campaign against death has been so successful, in fact, that it may be almost over. Recently, a team of demographers asked what would happen to life expectancies if heart disease, cancer, and stroke deaths were totally eliminated. They found that the average 70-year-old American man would enjoy another 6.8 years of active life before succumbing to some other illness, the average 70-year-old woman, 7.5 years. The causes of death in an aging society are fragmenting, as dozens of smaller ailments move up to take the place of the big three. Sooner or later, death will collect on its contract.

TAKING IT FURTHER

Here are the statistical sources cited in this article in order of appearance. Introduction: Life expectancy and age and sex-adjusted mortality rates are from Social Security Administration, Social Security Area Population Projections: Actuarial Study No. 110, from SSA Office of the Chief Actuary; telephone (410) 965-3015; fax (410) 965-6693. Effect of constant 1900 mortality rates: Kevin M. White and Samuel H. Preston, "How many Americans are active because of twentieth-century improvements in mortality?" Population and Development Review, Vol. 22, No. 3, September 1996; $8.00 from The Population Council, New York, New York: telephone (212) 339-0514; fax (212) 755-6052; e-mail pubinfo@popcounsil.org. Name and sex: The most recent final mortality statistics are published in Advance Report of Final Mortality Statistics, 1994 Vol. 45, No. 3) supplement to the Monthly Vital Statistics Report for a single copy or subscription, telephone the National Center for Health Statistics at (301) 436-8500 or send an e-mail to nchsquery@nch10a.em.cdc.gov. Causes of death in this report follow the Ninth Revision of the International Classification of Diseases; for more information, see the Reports technical appendix. Date: The most recent data are published in Vital Statistics of the United States, 1992; for sale by the Superintendent of Documents and on file at Larger libraries. For more information and a locator service, telephone (202) 512-1800; fax (202) 512-2250; Internet http://www.access. gpo.gov/su_docs/index.html. Place: Vital Statistics; New York City Division of Vital Records; Bellevue Hospital Center. Age: Social Security Projections; "Death Takes a Holiday," American Demographics, April 1984, page 38. Age, Mortality and longevity statistics from Social Security Administration, plus 1996 membership in Society of Actuaries, Schaumburg, Illinois. City and State: Vital Statistics. Race and Hispanic Origin: Advance Report, 1994; Bureau of the Census; Sortie, Backlund, Johnson, and Rogot, "Mortality by Hispanic Status in the United States," Journal of the American Medical Association, (Vol. 270, No. 20); reprints available from Paul D. Sortie, Nationat Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Room 3A10, Federal Building, Bethesda, MD 20892. Education: Advance Report, 1994 Bureau of the Census. Marital Status. Advance Report, 1994; SSA Projections. Burial and Cremation: Cremation Association of North America, Chicago, Illinois; National Funeral Directors Association, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, National Cremation Society, a division of SCI International, Houston, Texas. Manner of Death: Advance Report, 1994. Autopsy: Advance Report, 1994. Cause of Death: Births and Deaths: United States, 1995, NCHS Monthly Vital Statistics Report (Vol. 45 , No. 3, Supp. 2); SSA Projections; Mark Hayward, Eileen Crimmins, and Yasuhiko Saito, "Cause of Death and Active Life Expectancy in the Older Population of the United States," Journal of Aging and Health (in press), copies availabte from Mark Hayward at Pennsylvania State University, tetephone (814) 863-2398; fax (814) 863-8342; e-mail hayward@pop.psu.edu.