Points for good behavior

American Demographics, May, 1996 by Elia Kacapyr

The American Demographics Index of Well-being rose significantly in December 1995, to a level of 101.83, from a revised mark of 101.35 in November. This represents a gain of almost half a percent in a single month, about twice the typical monthly change in the index over the past five years. The December value indicates that the average level of well-being in America at the end of the year had increased 1.8 percent since the base month of April 1990 and was 2.4 percent higher than the low point hit in February 1992.

The only major component of the index that did not advance at all in December was consumer attitudes, in contrast to its jump the previous month. Almost 2 percent of the 4 percent gain in consumer optimism noted in November dissipated in December. These swings in consumer confidence are undoubtedly related to the on-again, off-again federal budget negotiations during those two tumultous months.

December's gains in well-being are primarily attributable to a noteworthy rise in the social and physical environment component of the index. This increase is in turn due to seemingly improved behavior on the part of the general public, as indicated by declines in divorce and crime rates. The declines may be the result of technical factors such as seasonal adjustment coefficients, and both sets of numbers are subject to revision. On the other hand, the measures may be correctly signaling new and true downward trends in crime and divorce.

Some may argue that divorce is not necessarily a bad thing. People wouldn't be willing to pay the price of divorce, in terms of time, money, and trauma, if they didn't believe it would lead to an improvement of sorts. Generally speaking, however, divorce represents the breaking up of a family unit and is often the result of a stressed environment. In this sense, the divorce rate serves as a proxy for social conditions. So does the crime rate, which has been on a slight, but long and well-established downward trend since early 1992.

The third piece of the index's social and physical environment component is a different story, however. The number of endangered species in the United States serves as a rough surrogate for the current level of environmental degradation. As of year-end 1995, the U.S. had 754 endangered species of plants and animals. This was up 81 percent from the 417 species listed in April 1990, but had not changed since September 1995. As a result, the overall social and physical environment sector of the Index of Well-Being improved slightly in the last month of the year.

The Fish and Wildlife Department usually updates its endangered-species list each month. But Congress placed a moratorium on new listings in 1995, then voted to extend it through December 1996. Large-scale changes to the Endangered Species Act are also being considered. If the law is gutted, as some in Congress have proposed, wild animals may suffer - and our Index will have to find new ways of measuring environmental change.

[TABULAR DATA OMITTED]

             TOTAL POPULATION MAY 1996:
                    264,960,780