Population update for May - American population statistics, May 1997

American Demographics, May, 1997 by Berna Miller

Seasonal patterns in vital statistics repeat each year. However, unusual events can cause fluctuations beyond normal seasonal variation. Their effects can be global, such as those caused by plagues, or local, such as the recent marriage boom in major metros with large immigrant populations. This surge in marriages was most likely spurred by new immigration laws that took effect on April 1.

Getting married may not prevent immigrants from losing government benefits or being deported, but most don't understand this. As a result, applications for marriage licenses have surged in New York, Houston, and Miami. In January 1997, there were 6,577 marriage licenses issued in New York City, an increase of 47 percent over January 1996. In Miami, the February 1997 total over the previous year was 43 percent. Houston experienced a similar increase of 31 percent. This surge has not occurred in the general population, and has not reached other high-immigration cities such as Los Angeles. It may be barely noticeable at the national level. However, its impact in certain areas should not be ignored when examining vital statistics.

266,842,383   (Apr. 30, 1997)
    341,085   (births)
   -198,004   (deaths)
     61,190   (net immigration)
267,046,654   (May 31, 1997)

(top ten states by estimated thousands of undocumented immigrants, 1994)

State           low estimate   high estimate

California         1,321           1,784
New York             462             539
Texas                300             427
Florida              243             385
Illinois             157             225
New Jersey            98             168
Massachusetts         42             106
Arizona               50              68
Virginia              37              63
Maryland              29              63
United States      3,500           4,000

Source: vita/statistics, National Center for Health Statistics; immigration estimates, Census Bureau; population projections, American Demographics