And how old are you, Mr. President?

American Demographics, June, 1996 by Ross Baker

The 1996 presidential campaign may turn out to be notable in the issues raised and arguments made. But that is all in the future. What we know now is this astounding fact: in no presidential election in U.S. history has there been such a huge age gap between candidates as between Bill Clinton and Bob Dole. Dole is 23 years older than Clinton. The age difference in 1992 for George Bush and Clinton was almost as great, at 22 years.

Age differences between candidates are typically much smaller. Over the past 35 elections, dating to the first time a Democrat faced a Republican in 1856, the average age difference between major party candidates has been 9.37 years.

The most recent presidential race with an age gap comparable to this year's was in 1856, when James Buchanan faced John Fremont. Buchanan was the elder by 22 years, precisely the difference between Clinton and Bush in 1992. Not only were Buchanan and Fremont separated in age by almost a quarter century, they were born in different centuries. That didn't occur again until 1948, when Harry Truman, born in 1884, faced Thomas Dewey, born in 1902. Yet the age difference between these two was only 18 years.

There have been four presidential elections in which as little as a year in age-separated the two candidates, but at no time were the two major-party hopefuls born in the same year. Appearances are sometimes deceptive. We often picture Walter Mondale, the Democratic candidate in 1984, as much younger than incumbent Ronald Reagan. Yet only 17 years separated them, precisely the same as for Abraham Lincoln and his opponent in 1864, George McClellan.

The intriguing question, of course, is whether there is a historical pattern of the younger or older candidate prevailing. In the 35 elections prior to 1996, the older candidate won 23 times, or two-thirds of the elections.

Does Bill Clinton look a little older than he did four years ago? Perhaps the stress and strain of his term and the failure of his health-care and welfare-reform proposals have aged Clinton. He may even look at himself in the mirror and wonder how much grayer his hair is now than in 1992. But cheer up, Mr. President. That silvery thatch may turn out to be an important political asset in a country that likes its presidents older--especially if Senator Bob Dole's hair continues to get darker.