Sport fads and trends - tips on distinguishing them

American Demographics, June, 1997 by Martin G. Letscher

Early in the life path of every new product, service, activity, or way of thinking comes a crucial fork in the path. At this crossroads, a signpost points in two directions. One heads down an increasingly untraveled route that gradually fades into an indiscernible track. This is where fads go. The other route becomes wider and busier with traffic. This is the route of a full-fledged trend.

The challenge, of course, is to figure out which is which. Fads offer the early promise that they will become highways paved with gold, then deteriorate into pothole-ridden thoroughfares. It's crucial to understand from the outset the whys and wherefores of an upsurge in popularity. Why are more people getting involved? Will they keep it up?

Among the sporting activities with the greatest increase in frequent participation between 1992 and 1995 were inline skating, billiards/pool, treadmills, step aerobics, and home-gym use, according to the Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association. All five activities at least doubled their number of frequent participants in the three-year period and had at least 3 million adult participants nationwide by 1995.

The longer-term potential for these rapidly growing sports can be gauged using a proprietary approach developed more than 15 years ago and used to evaluate the potential for many different products and services. (See "How to Tell Fads from Trends," December 1994.) This approach asks several common-sense questions, the answers to which can accurately predict the long-term potential of a new development in the consumer marketplace.

The Questions to Ask

Does the new development fit with other basic lifestyle trends or changes in the consumer world? Many companies have achieved marketing success with products and services that provide greater convenience for today's time-starved consumers. On the other hand, a new hair style that is more attractive, but takes more time to care for, is very unlikely to be adopted on more than a trial basis by a busy working woman who also jogs and plays tennis.

How varied, immediate, and important are the benefits associated with the new development? New developments are much more likely to become trends if they provide multiple benefits that are evident in the short term. One reason for the increased consumption of poultry and seafood is that they provide many benefits in addition to a healthier diet. These alternatives to red meat can also save money, provide variety in our diets, are socially acceptable, and taste better than we ever thought they would.

Can the product or service be personalized or modified to meet individual needs? Consumers' desire to express their individuality and uniqueness has been one of the most important and pervasive changes in late 20th-century American society. Developments that accommodate this need have a much greater chance of becoming trends. One reason for the strength of the health and wellness trend is that it can be expressed in so many different ways, including dietary changes, exercise, not smoking, and stress reduction. Fads, on the other hand, are not flexible and cannot be modified to meet individual needs and desires.

Is it a trend itself or merely the manifestation of a larger trend? The rise and fall in the popularity of particular types of mutual funds can be viewed as fads. These changes do not challenge the more substantial trend toward mutual funds as a type of investment particularly well-suited to the needs of today's more sophisticated consumers. Similarly, the ever-changing popularity of different kinds of ethnic restaurants are fads within a broader trend toward spicier food that provides a greater diversity of tastes.

Has the new development been adopted by key consumers who drive change? Support among key market segments is a critical requirement for a trend. It is very difficult for a new development to have a major and lasting impact on the overall marketplace without the support of two major groups, baby boomers and working women. But it is also important to gauge the support among segments key to the specific development in question. For many sports activities, teens and young adults are key groups. If they adopt an activity wholeheartedly, it has a better chance of going the distance.

Is the new development supported by changes in unrelated or surprising areas? Support for a new development from unexpected sources provides additional reason to believe that it is more than a short-lived fad. For example, support for a balanced budget by traditionally liberal politicians is a sign that the movement toward greater fiscal responsibility is a trend rather than a passing fancy.

In effect, these questions seek to understand the reasons and level of support for any new development in the consumer world, including sports. To become true trends, new developments need support of different types and from different sources. Those with a single driving force or raison d'tre are much more likely to be passing fads.

While growth in a variety of sports activities reflects a broader trend toward health and wellness, the question remains: which sports will continue to grow and which will quickly peak? The answer is strongly influenced by other changes in society. For example, team sports have generally declined because they just do not fit into today's hectic schedules. On the other hand, individual and small-group activities have grown, reflecting the increased importance of physical fitness as an individual health goal.