Death can wait - tendency of people to delay their deaths until after important occasions

American Demographics, July, 1997 by Min Liu

China's paramount leader Deng Xiaoping died on February 19, 1997, shortly after the Chinese New Year. This is the biggest holiday of the year for the Chinese and some other Asian peoples throughout the world. Mr. Deng died of long-term chronic illness, yet the timing of his death points to the intriguing association between mortality and social events.

Sociologist David Phillips has discovered a tendency for people who are near death to postpone dying until after a personal event of significance. His studies indicate that deaths dip before individuals birthdays. People also put off the grim reaper when an important religious or cultural holiday is near. Deaths in New York, a city with a large Jewish population, are lower than would be expected on a random basis just before the Jewish Day of Atonement. Likewise, mortality rates plummet among Chinese Americans in California just before the Chinese equivalent of Thanksgiving, the Harvest Moon Festival. And in a last fit of patriotism, enough Americans hang on to create a noticeable dip in deaths shortly before U.S. presidential elections.

The connections between body and mind have become more widely recognized, even in orthodox medicine. It should not be especially surprising that people linger to witness an important event. But the grim reaper cannot be held off indefinitely. Deaths rise with a vengeance after event-related dips. Comedian George Burns lived only a short time after his 100th birthday. Even the almighty Mr. Deng did not live to see something hed long awaited: the return of Hong Kong to China on July 1, 1997.

David P. Phillips has published several papers on the topic of death and significant events. Contact him at the Department of Sociology, University of California at San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093.