Keeping old cars on the road - includes related article on AutoZone's advertising strategy

American Demographics, July, 1997 by Alison Stein Wellner

Professional service providers may lure potential do-it-yourselfers away from aftermarket retailers by offering them a good deal. Time-strapped car owners may gladly pay $15 for an oil change, even though they are capable of doing it themselves. Environmental restrictions may also play a role by limiting the chemicals DIYers can use at home and making disposal difficult.

Sales data from the APAA suggest that more Americans may be using professionals for service and repair instead of buying and installing parts themselves, or at least theyre spending more at the mechanics shop. In 1980, Americans spent more on replacement parts purchased at a retail establishment than on repair and service--$34.4 billion, compared with $29.6 billion.

But by 1984, service spending surpassed retail expenditures on parts, and the trend has continued ever since. Total retail spending on service and repair increased 72 percent in constant 1996 dollars between 1980 and 1996, to an estimated $96.8 billion. Sales of retail replacement parts declined 13 percent, to an estimated $56.9 billion in 1996.

Replacement glass is a much smaller segment of the auto-repair market, but its sales grew at a fast clip, also. Glass sales increased 59 percent, from $1.7 billion in 1980 to an estimated $2.7 billion in 1996. The APAA attributes these numbers to deteriorating highway conditions that make flying rocks and debris a more common source of glass cracks and breaks. The popularity of light trucks may also play a role, since trucks have more glass than passenger cars.

Yet repairing broken windows and windshields has not been a particular bright spot for the automotive aftermarket in the short term. Sales of most individual categories of replacement parts, including glass, grew modestly or declined in constant dollars between 1993 and 1995, the last year for which final data are available. A 23 percent increase in the catch-all category of other replacement parts offset the declines, resulting in overall sales growth of about 4 percent.

Americans may be riding on their tires longer than they used to, or tires, like other replacement parts, may be lasting longer. Tires are the largest aftermarket sales category after other parts, with 1995 sales of $17.7 billion. That reflects a 3 percent decline in constant dollars from 1993. Steeper drops occurred in exhaust system parts and heating and cooling parts. Both fell 10 percent, to $2.1 billion and $2.3 billion, respectively.

Yet the market for do-it-yourself auto maintenance and repair remains solid, and no one knows how the growing number of old cars on American roads may affect it. We do know that it takes more money to maintain an old car than a new one. So whether we pop the hood ourselves or pass the keys to someone who knows better, Americans will certainly be spending to keep our cars stopping at red and going on green.

Alison Stein Wellner drives a 1992 Dodge Shadow with 110,000 miles on it. She checks fluids and tire pressure, but her greatest do-it-yourself activity is getting her husband to do the rest. She lives in Rochester, New York.