What the future holds: CEOs share their secrets, and speculations, on managing for the 25 years to come - Chief Forecasters - chief executive officers - Statistical Data Included

Chief Executive, The, August-Sept, 2002 by Paul Rogers, Jennifer Gilbert

When CEOs reflect on the experiences of their predecessors 25 years ago, the job seems simpler, to say the least. Sure, corporate chiefs faced challenges in 1977, when Chief Executive launched its inaugural issue; their problems included an energy crisis and severe inflation. But many issues that now weigh so heavily on CEOs' minds barely existed back then. Diversity merely meant taking into account the needs of growing numbers of women and members of traditional minority groups beginning to move into management. Canada was considered a foreign market. Telex machines were cutting-edge means of communication.

Fast-forward to 25 years from now: Given such forces as sweeping demographic change, technology and globalization, the CEOs of tomorrow are likely to have the same idealized impression of their forerunners. "I think they're going to look back and say we had it easy," posits Christine Jacobs, CEO of Theragenics, a cancer-treatment manufacturer.

That was the consensus of two dozen CEOs who recently shared with Chief Executive their predictions on the role of the CEO, their respective industries and the economy as whole in the years to come. With some exceptions, they could hardly be described as futurists; science-fiction mavens would find little fodder in their visions. When asked to look 25 years ahead, on the whole they cast their sights on a shorter term of, say, five to 10 years. Still, they sketched the outline of a corporate landscape far more complex than anything seen today.

In terms of demographics, the prognosticators point out, aging work forces across the developed world will create an enormous burden for CEOs in paying retiree benefits. At the same time, the percentage of women in the labor force will continue to rise, demanding lasting, equitable solutions for balancing family and career.

The march of technology poses further challenges. To fully capitalize on breakthroughs, these CEOs suggest, their counterparts of the future must use such advances not only to boost efficiency and develop products, but also to market new systems of knowledge, whether it's in postage, food testing or educational publishing.

Then there's globalization. To gain strongholds in coveted new markets overseas, CEOs will have to travel extensively, form partnerships with government and business leaders abroad--some with values distinctly different from their own -- and reconcile disparate cultures as they expand their work forces.

Add to that the challenges of consolidation. With major retailers growing at a stunning rate, manufacturers such as Unilever and Procter & Gamble not only will have to compete with each other; they'll need to leverage their brands against the Wal-Marts of the world, which use their clout to demand lower wholesale prices and longer time periods in which to pay their invoices.

But perhaps the biggest challenge, at least in the next few years, predict several CEOs, will be restoring faith in American business. The stunning succession of corporate scandals has placed chief executives under unprecedented scrutiny. "We are all on trial," says Willie Davis, the Hall of Fame Green Bay Packer who heads All Pro Broadcasting.

With chief executives juggling so many challenges, they say, the role of CEO will evolve. Increasingly, CEOs will have to teach and rely on others in their organizations as well as continually educate themselves. In turn, the common thinking goes, companies of the future will create leadership teams rather than cling to the notion of a single, brilliant decision-maker as CEO.

"If you're depending on one person to make the decisions," says Chad Holliday, the CEO of DuPont, "you just won't be fast enough to compete."

Other chief executives offer similarly provocative forecasts. Highlights of our interviews follow.

corporate scandals

Investors Flock to Private Affairs

CHRISTINE JACOBS

Beyond the more immediate fallout from the recent corporate scandals -- criminal action against dishonest executives and increased government oversight of business--Christine Jacobs predicts another outcome: a movement toward private companies.

CEO of Theragenics

Their confidence in the stock market shaken, investors will pull out of public companies and pour their money into private ones, believes Jacobs, CEO of Theragenics, a $50 million public company based near Atlanta that produces cancer treatments. She foresees a similar exodus among innovators and CEOs. "People who adore building companies will not put up with the restraints and some of the nonsense that comes with being public," asserts Jacobs, 52.

By "nonsense," she means the pressure so many public companies face to show impressive short-term results. Jacobs says that she, along with her board and management team, has considered taking Theragenics private again. But given the company's ambitious plans, she wants to maintain its access to capital in the public markets.

While announcing Theragenics' first-quarter results in April, she told investors the company's goal was not only to boost revenues, which were down from a year ago, but also to diversify into new forms of cancer treatment. Best known for producing radioactive seeds to treat prostate cancer, the company is developing new products for vascular disease, breast cancer and macular degeneration, a disease that can cause vision loss. But while Jacobs' announcement drew applause, uncertain investors didn't stick around. In mid-July, Theragenics' stock price hit a 52-week low, falling to $6.56 a share.