Long live the information revolution - Front Lines - Brief Article

Chief Executive, The, May, 2002

Is the Information Revolution Dead? That was the title of and central question at a debate among technology gurus W. Brian Arthur, Andrew Grove, and Lawrence Lessig, held in March in San Jose, Calif. Their answers, not surprisingly, suggested that it is not. More important, however, is what lies ahead.

The forum, sponsored by Business 2.0 in association with the Commonwealth Club Silicon Valley and the Tech Museum of Innovation, allowed for further discussion on the topic, which Arthur presented in an article in the magazine's March issue (available at www.business2.com). Arthur, Citibank Professor of the Santa Fe Institute and a former Stanford professor, believes that, compared to such historical periods as the Industrial Revolution, the information revolution is really at its mid-point.

"We've had our mania, we've had our crash, and I believe what were seeing is that the technology is starting to mature," Arthur said. "The actual tech, the base technologies, are in place, and I'm expecting the next five, 10, 15 years to be periods of buildup into a new period of prosperity and growth for the U.S. economy, based upon information technology itself."

Both Grove, co-founder and chairman of Intel, and Lessig, a professor of law at Stanford and an authority on intellectual property, agreed with Arthur's assessment.

However, all three focused on innovation, the sustaining force that will inspire more bright years ahead for the industry. How to encourage it formed the focus of the panel's discussion.

"The PC upended the business architecture," said Grove. "I think digitization and digital distribution [are] going to change the order, and, yes, there is going to be unhappiness, just like there was unhappiness in the computer industry watching the new upstarts--the minicomputer and personal computer makers--take a lion's share of the revenue pie. But it happened, and it's going to happen again."

Interestingly, both Microsoft and AOL Time Warner were treated as, at least potentially, on the side of the angels, something of a surprise in the Intel-focused Silicon Valley.

Lessig and Arthur provided the hearts of the argument--Arthur focusing on the many justifications for optimism, intellectual property guru Lessig describing some of the concerns that go along with them. "The real question we've got to focus on now, Lessig said, "is not the great optimism of the pattern of history, but particular powerful forces that can intervene and undercut that revival...

The big take-away for the audience was the shared belief of all three that America's overall capacity to innovate and implement innovation will prevail.