Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for January 2000 - Statistical Data Included

Federal Reserve Bulletin, March, 2000

Released for publication February 15

Industrial production increased 1.0 percent in January after advances of 0.3 percent in November and 0.4 percent in December. The output of utilities increased 1.8 percent in January, while output for both manufacturing and mining increased about 1 percent. At 141.5 percent of its 1992 average, industrial production in January was 5.5 percent higher than in January 1999. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry rose 0.5 percentage point, to 81.6 percent, more than 1 percentage point above its level in January 1999.

MARKET GROUPS

The output of consumer goods, which on balance had been flat during November and December, increased about 1 percent in January. The output of durable consumer goods surged 1.9 percent; the production of automotive products jumped 2.9 percent, making up the losses posted in the previous two months. The production of other durable consumer goods also rose strongly; the output of household appliances increased 4 percent, and the index for carpeting and furniture advanced further. The production of nondurable consumer goods also accelerated, rising 0.7 percent. The gain reflected both a further rebound in the output of energy products and an upturn in the output of non-energy consumer products.

The production of business equipment, which had eased over the preceding two months, jumped 1.9 percent in January. The output of transit equipment rebounded 1.9 percent because of an increase in motor vehicle assemblies. The output of industrial equipment, which had flattened late last year, rose 1 percent. The production of information processing and related equipment, for which growth averaged about 1 percent per month during the fourth quarter, rose 2.8 percent in January, led by gains in the output of communication equipment and computers. The output of defense and space equipment fell about 2 percent further in January, to a level 5.6 percent below that of a year earlier.

The output index of construction supplies, which had declined in November and December, edged up 0.2 percent in January to match the high level of the fourth quarter. The output of materials increased 1.0 percent, about the same as the average gain in the preceding three months. The output of durable goods materials rose 1.3 percent, with another strong increase in equipment parts, particularly semiconductors. The output of nondurable goods materials moved up slightly in January, and the output of energy materials, which had increased 1.4 in December, gained an additional 0.9 percent.

INDUSTRY GROUPS

Manufacturing output rose 0.9 percent in January; most major industries posted gains. Production in durable manufacturing gained 1.3 percent after increases of 0.4 percent in both November and December. The output of motor vehicles and parts, which had dropped 1.7 percent in December, rebounded 3.5 percent. The production of electrical machinery surged more than 3 percent, led by a 4 percent gain in semiconductors and related equipment. The production of industrial machinery and equipment increased more than 1 percent. In contrast, the output of aircraft and parts continued to decline, and the output of primary metals and instruments edged down.

After having changed little in December, production in nondurable manufacturing increased 0.3 percent in January, to a level 2.3 percent higher than in January 1999. Among nondurable manufacturing industries, production gains were widespread except for downturns in the output of tobacco and petroleum products.

The factory operating rate rose to 80.6 percent. Utilization in primary-processing industries increased to 83.9 percent, while that for advanced-processing industries advanced 0.6 percentage point, to 79.6 percent.

Output at utilities, which had rebounded 4.2 percent in December, was up another 1.8 percent in January; the operating rate at utilities rose to 93.2 percent. Boosted by the continuing recovery in oil and gas extraction, mine production increased 1.0 percent. The utilization rate at mines increased to 83.9 percent but remained noticeably below its long-term average.

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Industrial production and capacity utilization, January 2000

                            Industrial production, index. 1992 = 100

Category                                      1999

                                   Oct.(r)   Nov.(r)   Dec.(r)

Total                              139.1     139.5     140.1
Previous estimate                  139.4     139.9     140.5
Major market groups
Products, total(2)                 128.5     128.2     128.4
  Consumer goods                   118.2     117.7     118.2
  Business equipment               174.8     174.8     174.5
  Construction supplies            135.4     134.7     134.5
Materials                          156.8     158.7     160.1

Major industry groups
Manufacturing                      144.2     144.9     145.2
  Durable                          176.5     177.2     178.0
  Nondurable                       113.0     113.6     113.5
Mining                              99.2      99.6      99.6
Utilities                          115.2     112.8     117.5

                                Capacity utilization, percent

                                  Average,    Low,     High
                                  1967-99     1982    1988-89

Total                               82.0      71.1     85.4
Previous estimate
Manufacturing                       81.1      69.0     85.7
  Advanced processing               80.5      70.4     84.2
  Primary processing                82.4      66.2     88.9
Mining                              87.3      80.3     88.0
Utilities                           87.5      75.9     92.6

                           Industrial production, index. 1992 = 100

                                           Percentage change
Category                         2000
                                                 1999(1)

                                Jan.(p)     Oct.(r)    Nov.(r)

Total                           141.5        .7         .3
Previous estimate                 ...       1.0         .4
Major market groups
Products, total(2)              129.6        .7        -.2
  Consumer goods                119.3        .9        -.4
  Business equipment            177.8        .6         .0
  Construction supplies         134.8        .9        -.5
Materials                       161.8        .7        1.2

Major industry groups
Manufacturing                   146.6        .9         .5
  Durable                       180.4        .8         .4
  Nondurable                    113.9       1.0         .6
Mining                          100.6        .9         .4
Utilities                       119.7      -2.2       -2.0

                                Capacity utilization, percent

                                 1999            1999

                                 Jan.      Oct.(r)    Nov.(r)

Total                            80.4      81.0       81.0
Previous estimate                 ...      81.2       81.2
Manufacturing                    79.6      80.2       80.3
  Advanced processing            78.4      79.1       79.1
  Primary processing             83.1      83.4       83.9
Mining                           81.3      82.6       82.9
Utilities                        90.3      89.9       88.0

                            Industrial production, index. 1992 = 100

                                     Percentage change
Category
                              1999(1)     2000         Jan. 1999
                                                         to
                              Dec.(r)     Jan.(p)      Jan. 2000

Total                         .4           1.0          5.5
Previous estimate             .4           ...          ...
Major market groups
Products, total(2)            .2           1.0          3.3
  Consumer goods              .3           1.0          2.6
  Business equipment         -.2           1.9          7.2
  Construction supplies      -.2            .2          1.1
Materials                     .9           1.0          9.2

Major industry groups
Manufacturing                 .2            .9          5.8
  Durable                     .4           1.3          8.5
  Nondurable                 -.1            .3          2.3
Mining                        .0           1.0          2.7
Utilities                    4.2           1.8          4.5

                                                        MEMO
                            Capacity utilization,    Capacity,
                                  percent              per-
                                                     centage to
                             1999          2000       change,
                                                     Jan. 1999
                                                         to
                             Dec.         Jan.(p)     Jan. 2000

Total                        81.1          81.6         4.0
Previous estimate            81.3           ...         ...
Manufacturing                80.2          80.6         4.4
  Advanced processing        79.0          79.6         5.4
  Primary processing         83.6          83.9         2.2
Mining                       82.9          83.9         0.4
Utilities                    91.6          93.2         1.4