The plan! The plan!

New Mexico Business Journal, July-August, 1999 by Stephen Burstein

As the region grows, difficult choices will have to be made, and there isn't a lot of time in which to make them

Growing at a moderate 1.5 percent per year, the Middle Rio Grande region will be about the same size as the Kansas City, Sacramento or Milwaukee metropolitan areas by the year 2050. That's an increase from 710,000 residents today to one million residents by 2020, and more than 1.5 million residents by 2050 in the area that comprises Bernalillo, Sandoval, Torrance, Valencia and southern Santa Fe counties.

Can this region support an additional 810,000 residents? If so, where are all these people going to live and work? What future environmental impacts - both good and - will result from decisions we make on these issues today?

To answer these questions, the Middle Rio Grande Council of Governments (MRGCOG) is working on a regional planning effort called Focus 2050. Guided by the local elected officials who serve on the MRGCOG Board of Directors, Focus 2050 has been a major initiative in the MRGCOG's work program for the past three years, complementing regional transportation, economic development and water planning efforts.

Its purpose is to develop a long-range, regional plan for managing growth that is both environmentally sound and economically sustainable. Thus, while it is primarily a land use-based plan, it could not be accomplished without concurrent planning for transportation, open space, air quality, water, public utilities, housing and economic sustainability.

The environmental problems become apparent when you consider what the region will look like in 2050 if it continues on the same path it is now on. In sheer size, the developed area will expand dramatically from 268 square miles today to more than 600 square miles. Development will ring the current contiguous metropolitan area and surround the Valencia County municipalities of Los Lunas and Belen. Little of the new development would occur in downtown Albuquerque and other existing urban centers; instead, we would create many more small centers and strip malls in fringe areas.

Much of the urban growth would occur on the valley floor. Irrigated farmland would decrease from 114 square miles to about 88 square miles, most of which is in Valencia and Bernalillo counties.

Today, approximately 77 percent of the region's residents live in single-family units, and three-quarters of these live on lots larger than four units per acre (more than 8,000 square feet per lot). Continuing the trend to year 2050, land dedicated for single families would increase from 163 square miles to 500 square miles.

Substantial growth in rural residential areas (lots larger than one acre, often five acres) would be dispersed across the mountain base, mesas and plains areas of the region. Ninety-three percent of the jobs in the region are currently in Bernalillo County and Rio Rancho. Both of these areas are expected to hold onto the bulk of the jobs, with Albuquerque and Rio Rancho projected to have some 87 percent of the estimated 840,000 jobs by 2050.

The combination of decentralized jobs and widely dispersed residential areas means that daily-vehicle miles traveled will continue to increase. If the increased trip per person and choice of transportation continue, the future holds longer and slower commutes.

The trends in air quality, however, have been surprisingly good. Carbon monoxide levels in Bernalillo County have decreased over the last five years according to monitoring completed for compliance with the Clean Air Act. The improvements are attributed to the lower emissions from the newer fleet of automobiles, local climatic conditions, the vehicle inspection program and compliance with no-burn and reduced driving days. Carbon monoxide is anticipated to continue to decrease for the next seven years. After seven years, however, the increase in the number of vehicles and the greater number of miles traveled is expected to reverse this downward trend.

Based on the current water consumption rates for urban land uses (currently at approximately 113,000 acre-feet per year), by 2050, water use would increase to approximately 255,000 acre-feet per year. This is not a sustainable rate in either the Middle Rio Grande Basin or the Estancia Basin; the continued rate of water use would eventually lead to serious water supply problems.

These data are some of the preliminary results from studies on the Trend Scenario, one of four alternative land-use scenarios developed in the Focus 2050 process. The other three scenarios all minimize new development in the irrigated agricultural lands of the Rio Grande Valley and the Bosque and contain higher densities. They are:

* Contiguous Mesa Expansion Scenario, which develops identified major projects and other areas in contiguous areas in the region. More in-fill, mixed-use centers and corridors would accommodate development in existing urban areas.

* Moderately Compact Scenario emphasizes in-fill in existing communities and the development of clusters of satellite urban communities in the Bernalillo County, West Mesa and Rio Rancho areas, Mesa del Sol and Valencia County's East Mesa.