Risks of new nukes

Issues in Science and Technology, Fall 2003 by May, Michael

Michael A. Levi's points in "The Case Against New Nuclear Weapons" (Issues, Spring 2003) are well taken and his estimates generally correct, but some important additional points should be made.

"This argument [that the fallout from a nuclear explosion is less deadly than the biological or chemical fallout produced by a conventional attack] misses two crucial points," Levi writes. Actually, it also misses a third crucial point: Chemical and biological agents in storage barrels in a bunker may not be reached by the heat and radiation from a nuclear explosion intended to destroy them in the time available before venting to the outside cools the cavity volume. How much is sterilized depends on the details of the configuration of the bunker and the containers, whether containers are buried separately in the earth, and other factors. The same is true of attacks with incendiaries and other methods. No guarantee of complete sterilization means that an unknown amount of agents could be spread along with the fallout. A study of the effectiveness of various attacks against a variety of bunker and other targets is needed to determine what happens (see http://cisac.stanford.edu/research/inprogress/mayhaldeman.html). Even such a study, given all the uncertainties attending the targets, is unlikely to lead to reliable assurance of complete sterilization.

According to the article, "two megatons . . . would leave unscathed any facilities buried under more than 200 meters of hard rock." This estimate is probably conservative for well-designed structures. In addition, the devastation on the surface would make it difficult for anyone to access or communicate with the facility. Levi's estimates of the effects of fallout also seem reasonable, given past experience with cratering explosions.

Levi criticizes the notion that "many enemies are so foreign that it is impossible to judge what they value." Without getting into the details of Levi's argument, the notion he criticizes is a myth, convenient if one wants to demonize an enemy but harmful if one is looking for ways of dealing with reallife problems. The so-called rogue states have been deterred by far lesser threats than nuclear weapons, invasion, and regime change. Their pattern of responses to incentives, positive and negative, is not very different from that of other states. That they oppose the United States does not make them mysterious.

"To claim a need for further engineering study of the robust nuclear earth penetrator is disingenuous," he writes. Under some circumstances, a penetrating nuclear weapon could be effective against some targets while at the same time causing destructive surface effects. A study could determine just what the targets would be and how destructive the effects would be in specific circumstances. This is not an engineering study in the usual sense, however.

Two more points: One, to assume that the United States will be the only user of nuclear weapons is the well-known fallacy of the last move. Other weapons-capable countries could make effective use of nuclear weapons against the United States without attacking the U.S. homeland or indeed any city. U.S. forces and bases in U.S.-allied territories would be easy targets to destroy. If the United States uses nuclear weapons as tools of military operations, other countries may be empowered or driven to do the same.

The second point: As a veteran of both the Cold War arms race and Cold War arms control, I feel that we were a little wise and a great deal lucky. To toss around nuclear threats against regimes that are nuclear-capable but not sure of their survival overlooks the element of luck that has attended our nuclear age to date. We can certainly start a nuclear war, but we have no experience in limiting it.

MICHAEL MAY

Professor (Research) Emeritus

Engineering-Economic Systems and Operations Research

Center for International Security and Cooperation

Stanford University

Stanford, California

mmay@stanford.edu