Completing the Transformation of U.S. Military Forces

Issues in Science and Technology, Summer 2004 by Deitchman, S J

The Soviet war in Afghanistan, using "old-fashioned" forces numbering about 100,000, took place over nine years and resulted in 15,000 soldiers killed in action. They eventually withdrew without succeeding in their mission of controlling the country. In comparison, U.S. forces, about 10,000 strong and working with Afghan allies, defeated the Taliban and Al Qaeda in less than three months and suffered about 100 soldiers killed in action. The carpet bombing of Dresden cost between 35,000 and 135,000 lives (estimates vary widely) and destroyed the city, whereas the 1999 Belgrade and 2003 Baghdad bombing campaigns cost on the order of a few hundred civilian lives with minimal incidental destruction.

Don't stop now

Although the performance of today's force has been impressive, further improvement is needed. Evidence of weakness includes mistaken attacks against civilian targets, fratricidal attacks against friendly force elements, and the difficulty of finding and disposing of opposition leadership. Moreover, the U.S. military's new force structure and posture are vulnerable in many ways. As is often the case, the vulnerabilities are inherent in the fundamentals of military organization and modes of combat. To name just a few of the more critical ones:

* The targeting network and the guidance systems of the forces' most lethal weapons can be foiled by the use of cover, concealment, and deception (for example, tanks hidden in haystacks in Kosovo) and by interference with satellite navigation signals.

* The communication networks, some of them commercial, on which the military depends to deliver targeting and other data to processing centers and to the forces in the field, and to manage those forces' highly dispersed operations, can be disrupted by many kinds of electronic and physical attack.

* U.S. forces have had the luxury of air supremacy in recent conflicts. However, the Soviet Union, before its collapse, had been fielding long-range, high-altitude, antiaircraft missile systems capable of denying this air supremacy or at least putting it at serious risk. For example, the Russian S-300 SAM system can reach out about 120 miles to attack aircraft in level flight and was claimed by the Soviets to have counter-stealth characteristics. This system could attack the essential U.S. surveillance and command and control aircraft orbiting several tens of miles from a battlefield, as well as the combat aircraft delivering weapons from what has thus far been the sanctuary above an altitude of 15,000 to 20,000 feet. A new version of this system, the S-400 Triumph, with even longer range, is said to be under development specifically for the export market. These systems are now for sale to any willing buyer, including those with whom U.S. forces may become engaged in the future; China has them, and North Korea is said to be in negotiations with Russia to acquire them.

* The sea lines of supply that U.S. forces need for logistic support are vulnerable to attack by quiet non-nuclear submarines such as the Russian Kiloclass submarines and newer Swedish and German designs that are being purchased around the world. Iran, Pakistan, China, and North Korea have such submarines, and China has several nuclear-powered submarines; China and North Korea are still building and modernizing their submarine fleets. Also, ballistic missiles, such as the Soviet-era SCUD, and maritime mines are widely available weapons that can be used against ports that U.S. ships must use.