Fair job prospects await 2003 grads

Black Collegian, Feb 2003 by Gardner, Philip

Employment Outlook for 2003 Graduates

Overall, employers rated the job prospects for this year as fair. This rating was slightly weaker compared to last year. While the economy remains weak, several industrial sectors are more optimistic, including construction, transportation (except the airlines), and health care services. The government sector sent mixed signals. Local and state government agencies, many faced with budget reductions, will not be hiring; however, the federal government is still seeking graduates to fill a variety of positions.

Ten percent of the sample of nearly 400 employers indicated that they would not be hiring anyone this year. Another 31% were uncertain about their hiring goals and were waiting until they had a better sense of economic conditions in the spring. The remaining 59% had established hiring intentions. For those who revealed their hiring targets, 43% were decreasing hires, 37% were increasing and for the final 20%, there was no change in hiring for bachelor's degree graduates.

When actual hiring figures are examined, we find that for all graduates, regardless of degree level, hiring will be down only one percent that is statistically no change from the numbers hired last year. While the average number hired per firm for bachelor's degree graduates will remain unchanged, master's graduates will see a decrease of 3%. Actually this may be good news as the MBA market has been dismal the past two years.

What is making these figures come out so much more positive than the hiring intentions figures seem to indicate? Contribute the confusing results to employers who are making definite commitments to hire this year. These employers are hiring more than twice as many graduates as those who have only tentative plans or are uncertain about their hiring goals.

So, which employers will hire? The surge in hiring is being directed by small to medium-sized firms (under 1,600 employees). In fact, the firms with 61-300 employees will be the most aggressive in seeking new hires. These employers can be found in construction, retail, food and lodging, and transportation. Large firms expect to have to continue to cut labor; particularly in professional services and finance. An additional characteristic of those who will be hiring is that they are not likely to have connections to college campuses. They tend to recruit through word-of-mouth, the Internet, and job postings that may go to college campuses.

What majors can expect to be hired this year? Engineers and computer scientists traditionally are in the best position to withstand slow labor markets. Last year, these folks faced a very weak market. Few graduates in 2002 received multiple offers but they did find employment. However, the technical market is even weaker this year, down 7% to 15% from last year. Retrenchment in manufacturing, problems in the computer industry, and the general malaise among consulting firms will make it very difficult for engineers to find employment. They will have to work hard in their job search, looking in untraditional places.