Bellwethers of realignment

Policy Review, Nov/Dec 1996 by Malone, Bernadette

Will the surprise election of a Republican majority in the 104th Congress prove to be the first cannonball fired in a full-scale conservative revolution in the federal government, or merely a brief surgical strike to redirect an overreaching president's imprudent agenda? That question, of course, will be determined by the historians.

Regardless of the outcome of the congressional races this November, state legislatures around the country are providing an irrefutable case for an emerging nationwide trend toward a conservative governing philosophy of traditional values, free-market solutions, and smaller government.

Eighteen state legislative chambers have switched from Democratic to Republican control since the 1994 election-either by direct election or their legislators' party-switching. (One of these, the Wisconsin senate, reverted back to Democratic rule, but only after a Republican senator was recalled by voters for his support of a tax increase.) On the national level, conservatism and its standard bearers in Congress haven't had an easy year Many voters who were enamored of the ideas of Republican candidates in November 1994 are expressing doubt to pollsters that the person they voted for should remain in office in 1997.

But the important thing to remember is that the left's attack on the 104th Congress has focused on the messenger of conservative government-House Speaker Newt Gingrich-and not the message. To their apparent advantage in polls, challengers to conservative members of congress lambaste their opponents' allegiance to the vilified and unpopular Speaker.

This tactic won't work in state legislative races, where most conservative candidates have never met Gingrich, much less voted with him. State officeseekers are able to separate themselves from the government shutdowns and default threats that haunt many of their federal counterparts and concentrate on the local issues that characterize the devolution of Big Government.

Here are the key states to watch on November 5th for evidence of the conservative agenda's progress: Florida

Jeb Bush doesn't think it's necessarily the big changes in this state that highlight Florida's growing conservatism. "It's just a continued, constant march towards changing the relationship of government to the people," explains Bush, who came within 2 percentage points of defeating Lawton Chiles for the governorship in 1994. This past legislative session marks the first time since Reconstruction that Florida's senate is Republican-controlled. And come November, the house will go the way of the senate if the GOP can capture three seats. They are very optimistic: 11 of the 12 representatives retiring this year are Democrats, and most are from districts that Bush, the son of President George Bush, carried over Chiles in his narrow loss.

The mainstay of the Democrats' reelection strategy is their no-new-taxes votes and a record of holding growth in the state budget to only 2 percent this session, reports Susan McManus, a professor of public administration and political science at the University of South Florida. "Florida, like the nation at large, has become more conservative over the years," McManus wrote in a recent paper.

"There's no question Florida is shifting to the right, both philosophically and in terms of party registration," says John Smith, the vice president of the James Madison Institute, in Tallahassee. He cites as examples Florida's stringent welfare bill, which is currently awaiting approval from the federal government; tough crime measures; and a new charter-school system. If Republicans take the senate, a school-voucher bill that died during this session has an excellent chance of passage.

Most indicative of the conservatism blossoming in Florida is the slowing of the state spending machine. Since 1983, Smith says, state spending increases averaged $2.4 billion a year But spending increases in the two most recent budgets have averaged just $500 million. According to Smith, the 1994 state and federal elections and the spending-cap amendment Floridians voted for (also in 1994) are responsible for this encouraging trend. Iowa

The 1994 electoral tidal wave washed over Iowa's lower chamber, enlarging the Republicans' 5149 majority to 63-37, but it left the senate in Democratic control by a margin of 2724. Will the November election be a victory for conservatives in the senate?

"It will give them a Republican majority-but not a conservative influence. That will probably take another election cycle," admits Secretary of State Paul Pate, a Republican and a rising prospect for the governorship. (Governor Terry Branstad is not seeking re-election in 1998.) As a member of the senate from 1989 until 1994, Pate struggled to shepherd conservative bills through his own Republican caucus.

But Pate is confident that some of the Republican candidates running to replace retiring Democrats are solid conservatives who will advance the ball next session. The death penalty, parental notification for minors seeking abortions, and regulatory relief are some major issues Iowa conservatives have been pushing, and all have been obstructed by the Democratic senate.