Colleges remain resilient industry

Vermont Business Magazine, Aug 01, 2002 by Kelley, Kevin

The psychological impact of September 11 on Vermont colleges and the state university is proving less significant than had been earlier suggested. But the state's colleges and university's continue to play an important economic role in the state, which is especially noticeable as the economy in general slumps.

Only one of Vermont's higher-education institutions is anticipating a big boost in enrollment for the coming academic year. The otherwise steady, slightly higher or, in one case, plummeting undergraduate numbers are not consistent with speculation that Vermont schools might experience an upsurge in applications because of public response to the threat of terrorism.

In a report late last year, Moody's Investor Services had pointed to the possibility of enrollment gains for highereducation institutions in rural areas. Big cities, by contrast, might be widely viewed as more dangerous places to attend school, Moody's hypothesized. And due to heightened fear of flying, students might now be "less likely to matriculate at colleges beyond a day's driving distance," the report said.

In reality, the terrorist attacks seem to be having only slight and uneven effects on enrollment patterns-nationally as well as in Vermont. Half of the 80 public and private institutions around the country responding to questions from the National Association for College Admission Counseling said in May that they had noticed no changes in application or enrollment trends attributable to fallout from September 11. But some colleges did report an increase in the number of in-state applications, indicating that more students may be seeking to avoid regular air travel. And a few schools also noted a drop in the number of international applications.

Vermont's higher-education institutions also seem generally in synch with national trends in regard to tuition increases.

Over the past five years, tuition at public universities has risen at an annual rate of around 4 percent. That's close to the percentage increase for the coming year for both in-state and out-of-state students enrolled at the University of Vermont.

Many private colleges, however, will be charging their students substantially more for the 2002-2003 academic year tuition increases well in excess of the general inflation rate are not uncommon nationally, and at least two Vermont schools have put up their prices by 6 percent for the coming year. Private colleges are feeling a tight financial squeeze because the bear market is mauling their endowments at the same time that rising unemployment is putting added strains on financial-aid budgets.

Despite these factors and the state's worrisome economic outlook, Vermont's higher-education institutions generally appear to be in sound financial shape.

Even Goddard College, which in June announced the elimination of its residential program, is operating on a balanced budget and expects to weather its current crisis, says President Stephen Fritz.

Goddard will remain in business and will not pursue a merger with any institution, Fritz says. If his assurances are borne out, the list of Vermont higher-ed institutions that have succumbed to financial pressures will continue to include only one entry: Burlington's Trinity College, which shut its doors two years ago.

Middlebury College is one of the few schools in Vermont to have discerned some shift in enrollment as a result of September 11. The number of international students attending Middlebury will be substantially smaller this year due to a drop in applications from abroad-from 900 to 800, says Mike Schoenfeld, the college's dean of enrollment planning.

At the same time, applications from graduates of New England high schools have risen 2 percent even as applications from other parts of the country have declined. Both sets of changes may be linked to altered perceptions in the aftermath of September 11, Schoenfeld suggests.

Middlebury has had no trouble filling its available number of enrollment slots. The prestigious college continues to accept only one of every four applicants, making Middlebury the most competitive of Vermont's colleges. And despite the fall-off in applications from abroad and from some parts of the United States, the current year is Middlebury's second-best ever in terms of numbers of high school grads seeking admission.

"Our enrollment figures are not controlled by the number of applications, but by the number of beds," Schoenfeld says, noting that Middlebury may enroll about 20 additional students this year as a result of construction of a new residence hall.

Total enrollment will be roughly 2,270, while charges for tuition, room and board will total $35,900 - 4 percent more than last year.

St. Michael's College in Colchester has also seen a small increase and a geographical shift in applications that may reflect post-September 11 considerations on the part of parents and students. Vermont residents will account for 23 percent of St Michael's incoming class, compared to an average in recent years of about 20 percent, reports Jerry Flanagan, vice president for enrollment.