Syracuse tops in state in new consumer-confidence survey

CNY Business Journal (1996+), Jul 12, 2002 by Kropf, Annemarie

For the first time in the survey's brief history, Syracuse has the highest consumer-confidence rating in New York State, according to the latest quarterly report by the Siena Research Institute (SRI). While Syracuse beat out Albany for the top spot, Binghamton was in last place.

"In Albany, we've had negative news and job layoffs," says Dr. Douglas Lonnstrom, SRI director, from his Loudonville office. "There's not an abundance of good news lately. Syracuse certainly has some real things going on."

The institute started its quarterly consumer-confidence survey for Albany in 1995. Since 1999, SRI has published a monthly consumer-confidence survey of New York State. The idea for a quarterly survey on the state's six major metropolitan areas came from repeated requests to expand the institute's Albany coverage. The areas now covered include Syracuse, Binghamton, Albany, Buffalo, Rochester, and New York City. This is the third quarter the survey has included all six cities.

The latest survey measured consumer confidence during April, May, and June. Nationally, consumer confidence increased one point, to 94.1 percent. Overall consumer confidence in New 0York State increased nearly 4.9 points, to 87.4 percent.

Syracuse and New York City were the only cities to experience an increase in the confidence ratings; the other four areas decreased. New York City increased 2.2 points, to 88.3 percent, but it wasn't enough to top Syracuse, which increased 4.3 points, to 92.6 percent. Albany dropped nearly four points, to 92.4 percent, and Buffalo also fell 4.4 points, to 81.6 percent. Rochester decreased 2.4 points, to 87.7. Although it had been in last place, Binghamton remained steady, at 79.4 percent, during the first two quarters of the survey. This quarter, the city's confidence rating slid to 75 percent.

"Binghamton is the most rural of the six areas," Lonnstrom explains. "Consumer confidence in rural areas lags behind urban areas." He adds that Binghamton is the smallest of the six areas as well.

When asked if they were better off than they were one year ago, only Binghamton residents said they were worse. The city measured 32 points (worse) versus 26.7 points (better). Residents in the other areas were more positive. Syracuse residents (35.9 points) came in second to Albany (41.1 points) when asked if they were better off.

As for the future, residents of all six cities were hopeful that business would be better one year from now. Getting there, though, might be rough, according to the survey results. When asked about good business conditions during the next 12 months, New York City (49.5 percent) came closest to the national level of 50 percent. The state measured 46 percent. and Syracuse came in at 45.7 percent. Binghamton, on the other hand. measured 24.5 percent.

When asked if they expected poor business conditions over the next 12 months. Binghamton residents were in the lead with 54 percent. Buffalo came in a close second with 51.1 percent. Rochester came in third with 33.1 percent.

Many surveyed in the six areas felt that now is a good time to buy. Buffalo (63.3 percent) was in the lead, followed closeIy by Albany (63.1 percent) and Syracuse (62 percent). Binghamton came in fifth with 53.4 percent. New York City was in last place, with 36.9 percent. The SRI survey tracks five major purchase categories: furniture, home sales, major home improvements, computers, and vehicles. New York City was in the lead with all but furniture, where Albany led.

"New York City buying plans jumped substantially," Lonnstrom says. "I'm hesitant at this stage to make any predictions. I'd like to see us go several quarters."

The SRI survey was conducted by random telephone calls to adults over the age of 18. The overall state and New York City indexes are based on an average of SRI's monthly consumerconfidence surveys. Each of the other metro-area indexes is based on 400 respondents and has a margin of error of 4.9 points.