Turkey: The emergence of a new foreign policy the neo-ottoman imperial model

Journal of Political and Military Sociology, Winter 1996 by Constantinides, Stephanos

On the domestic affairs, the Islamist Party of Erbakan is moderate, accepting a secularist based state with "neutrality in religious matters, as is the case in the United States and France " Noting that Turkey is neither Algeria nor Iran, Erbakan declared before the last election in December 1995 that his party "will always submit to the popular will ande that in case he succeeded to form a coalition government--that's the case presently--his

In reality, the current situation in Turkey is a working arrangement between the Kemalist establishment and the Islamists which permits a moderate re-Islamization accompanied by re-Ottomanization. It seems that the Kemalist establishment which in recent years accepted without difficulty a re-Ottomanization of Turkey's foreign policy is reassured by this compromise between Islamism and Ottomanism. Furthermore, the Islamists will be perhaps more successful than the other parties in finding a compromise to the Kurdish question recognizing the Kurdish identity inside the Ottoman tradition of a multinational society and state. It is therefore possible to suggest that a neo-Ottomanist direction of Turkey will rather facilitate its relations with the west and will result in a stabilized regional power better serving western interests in this strategic area.

CONCLUSION

Although it is difficult and even hazardous to consider the future direction of Turkish politics, it seems that re-Islamization and reOttomanization is an inexorable process. The main question is how gradual it will be in the future in order to avoid the Kemalist's establishment reaction. There is always a risk of confrontation if this process goes too far or too fast. Such a confrontation will put in jeopardy the present relative stability of the country and will force the west to reexamine its whole strategy in the region.

1Chase, S. Robert; Hill, B. Emily; and Kennedy, Paul, "Pivotal States and U.S. Strategy,, Foreign Affairs, January/February 1996, p. 47.

2L'9tst do Monde 1994,1995,1996, Paris, Editions La Decouverte, Turquie.

3Robins, Philip, Turkey and the Middle-East, London, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Pinter Publishers, 1991, pp. 22-23.

4 Peroncel-Hugoz, J.P., "Crbpuscule du Kemalisme' Le Monde, 27 mai 1986, OZAL, Turgut, Turkey in Europe, French Edition (first published), Paris, Ed. Plon, 1988, p. 282 *English Edition).

5 Chase, R.S., Hill, E.B., Kennedy, P., op. cit., p. 37.

6 'Robins, Philip, 'La turquie h Fheure des revisions strategiques,' in KODMANIDARWISH Bassma and CHARTOUNI-DUBARRY May, Perceptions de s titi et dna ies nationales aD Moyen-Orient, Paris, Masson, 1994, pp. 119-134.

7 'Etat du Monde 1995, Paris, Les Editions La Decouverte, 1994, p. 185. 8Sezer, Duygn Bazoglu, 'Turkey in the Post-Cold War Era: Evolving Domestic and Foreign Policy Trends and Challenges; in Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP) Yearbook 1994-95 Athens, 1995, pp. 519-542.

10L'Etat du Monde, 1994,1995, 1996, Turquie, op. cit.

11 Eric Rouleau, 'Turkey: Beyond Ataturk," Foreign Policy, Summer 1996, p. 71.