Nuclear bees in North Korea

Army, Aug 2003 by Collins, John M

A few nuclear weapons, coupled with suspected biological and confirmed chemical warfare systems, would give North Korea imposing retaliatory capabilities. Medium-range SCUD C surface-to-surface missiles currently can cover the entire peninsula. The longer range No Dong 1 could attack the U.S. naval base at Yokosuka, Japan. Taepo Dong 1 missiles, which may number as many as 10, endanger U.S. garrisons on Guam and Okinawa. Scientists who seek to perfect untested Taepo 2s must solve guidance, staging, reentry and other technological problems before a nuclear-tipped DPRK missile can put targets at risk in Alaska, Hawaii and the continental United States.

DPRK defenses are among the world's most formidable. Cleverly concealed surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) and anti-aircraft guns provide an awesome umbrella over the national capitol, in-depth defensive positions within 60-70 miles of the DMZ and nuclear plants that produce fissionable materials farther north. Hardened facilities, many buried in bedrock, probably shield subterranean nuclear storage vaults and uranium enrichment sites as well as missile launchers, artillery, combat aircraft, naval craft and logistical installations. Furthermore, illegal fortifications violate the DMZ virtually to the centerline.

Extensive liabilities nevertheless cramp North Korean capabilities. No reliable allies seem available since the Soviet Union collapsed and China ceased active military support. Most weapons and equipment are antiquated. T-34 and T-54/55 tanks of World War II vintage vastly outnumber T-62s, which the Soviet Union ceased to produce in 1975. First class air superiority aircraft, typified by late model MiG-29s recently acquired from Russia, are too few and too antiquated to control skies anywhere over the Korean peninsula (nearly three-fourths of all DPRK fighters are MiG-17s, 19s and 21s, which update models that only first flew in the 1950s). Fifteen out of 19 SAM brigades are armed with SA-2 missiles that were state-of-the-art during the Vietnam War. Fuel, repair parts and other military stock-piles reportedly are sufficient to last three months or less.

Three former four-star commanders of Combined Forces Command and U.S. Forces in Korea, who scrubbed this study in draft, believe South Korean forces qualitatively outclass DPRK rivals more than most U.S. or ROK leaders acknowledge, partly because Air Force flying hours and tank training programs are far better. U.S. air power, naval power, technological superiority and decades of allied collaboration further strengthen the U.S.-ROK coalition. Standoff air and missile strikes could simultaneously engage North Korean nuclear installations, armed forces and lifelines from east, south and west, a priceless advantage given U.S. target acquisition capabilities, stealth aircraft, land attack cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions. U.S. and ROK forces plan together, train together and, in most instances, employ interoperable weapons, equipment and supplies. Computers accelerate decision-making cycles and enhance military operations in myriad other ways. Common C^sup 3^I architecture, procedures and rules of engagement foster unity of effort.